Business Week. Rapid de-shadowing, Venezuelan blitzkrieg, and the dollar's roller coaster

The last week in the business world was marked by unexpected turns in foreign policy. Business life intensified after the New Year holidays. Business may be affected by the devaluation of the hryvnia, which was announced by the NBU. At the same time, it became known that Ukrainian sugar exports to Europe decreased by 60%.Read about other news – rotations in the security bloc, Trump's oil games, and the rapid de-shadowing of Ukraine – in the digest LIGA.netVenezuelan Zugzwang: Will Trump Collapse Global Oil PricesOn January 3, the United States of America overthrew the regime of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro overnight, delivering a series of strikes on the capital, Caracas. This happened after tensions between the countries escalated amid accusations of drug trafficking under the cover of the Maduro regime. President Trump threatened Caracas with sanctions, but instead authorized a special operation.The Venezuelan parliament building, the southern districts of Caracas, including Fort Tiuna, the Generalissimo Francisco de Miranda Air Base, and the residence of Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez came under US fire.The very same Maduro was kidnapped, was arrested and sent to the United States.The last week has shown that, firstly, the change of leadership in Venezuela has led to an increase in oil prices. Secondly, the lightning-fast special operation in Venezuela is changing the oil market and the political map of the world.By gaining access to the world's largest oil reserves in Venezuela, Trump could crash oil prices and gain a strategic advantage in negotiations with Russia.The United States could increase exports, which would lead to an even greater price reduction – to the desired level of $50 per barrel. In this case, Russian Urals crude could cost $30 per barrel.Also, US President Donald Trump plans to ensure Washington's dominance in Venezuela's oil industry, writes The Wall Street Journal citing informed sources.However, against the backdrop of the success of the Venezuelan special operation, Trump again began to hint at Greenland. The next day, the US president again stated that he needed control over this island. In response, the Danish ambassador to America recalled the allied obligations of the United States and the guarantee of security in the Arctic.If the United States were to attack Greenland, a self-governing island within the Kingdom of Denmark, it would, among other things, mean the end of the North Atlantic Alliance, NATO.Read alsoThe World in 2026: Trump's Tariff Wars as a Catalyst for Gradual De-dollarizationThe baby is gone. The commander of "Alpha" has temporarily taken over the SBU.Despite the military's appeal against rotation in the SBU, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the head of the agency Vasyl Maliuk. However, he offered the general to stay in the service and carry out "world-class" special operations. The head of the "Alpha" Special Operations Center will temporarily serve as the head of the SBU.Malyuk is known as the organizer of Ukrainian asymmetric special operations against Russia, such as "Pavutyna".The general himself confirmed that he is stepping down as head of the SBU, but will remain in the system to implement world-class asymmetric special operations.Ukrainian sugar exports to Europe have decreased by 60%Due to the introduction of restrictions in 2025 Ukraine exported much less sugar – almost 464,000 tons. For comparison, in 2024, a historical record for sugar exports from Ukraine was set – 746,000 tons.According to the National Association of Sugar Producers of Ukraine "Ukrsugar", the structure of Ukrainian sugar export supplies changed over the past year. While in 2024 the ratio between world markets and the EU was 60% to 40% respectively, in 2025 the situation changed: 73% of the exported volume was directed to the world market and only 27% to EU countries.Lebanon topped the list of largest importers, buying 15% of all Ukrainian exports. Bulgaria took second place with a 14% share. North Macedonia accounted for 8% of supplies."As a result, exports to the EU in 2025 decreased by 59% compared to the previous year, amounting to 123,000 tons," Ukrtsukor emphasized.Read alsoSugar, butter, coffee, and ground beef prices have risen in the US. How will this affect Ukraine?New bank in Ukraine. Who will enter the marketFor the first time since the beginning of the full-scale war, a foreign banking investor will enter Ukraine. This is the Estonian fintech group Iute Group AS, which is buying the insolvent RVS Bank. The company has already submitted documents to the NBU.Iute Group is entering the Ukrainian market by acquiring the license of the insolvent RVS Bank. The Estonian fintech company won the tender of the Deposit Guarantee Fund for the acquisition of RVS assets."Ukraine will become an economic driver for Europe," believes Tarmo Sild, CEO and co-founder of Iute Group AS. In an exclusive comment for LIGA.net He explained why the company decided to invest in Ukraine right now, when Ukrainians will be able to start using the new bank, and what will happen to the 13,000 clients of the bankrupt RVS Bank.Read more about this in the text: €15 million in investments and expectations of an economic boom. Estonian fintech enters Ukraine. What are the plans?Capture of a Russian-flagged tankerThe US military has captured oil tanker the shadow fleet vessel Marinera, formerly known as Bella 1, which sails under the Russian flag, as well as the tanker Sophia. On December 7, 2025, the US imposed a full blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers entering or departing from Venezuelan ports.According to Reuters, a tanker linked to Venezuela was seized after a more than two-week chase across the Atlantic. It managed to "slip through" a so-called naval blockade of sanctioned ships and rejected attempts by the US Coast Guard to board it.The vessel was eventually seized in the North Atlantic under a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after it was tracked by the Coast Guard cutter USCGC Munro.Analysts do not rule out that these actions could escalate tensions in relations with Russia. They also reported that at the time of the operation, Russian military vessels, including a submarine, were in close proximity to the tanker.The Russian Ministry of Transport stated that the vessel Bella-1/Marinera received "permission to sail" under the Russian flag on December 25, 2025. After a US landing party boarded it, contact with the vessel was allegedly lost.The Russian-flagged tanker is the latest to be targeted by the US "pressure campaign" since the White House began its operation against Venezuela. However, according to US officials, the US Coast Guard intercepted another Venezuela-linked tanker in Latin American waters.Read alsoUS vs. Russian "shadow" tanker: the Marinera precedentHryvnia loses ground: dollar exchange rate exceeds 43 UAH for the first timeThe National Bank has lowered the official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar by almost 9 kopecks – to 43.0757 per dollar. The rate will take effect on January 12. This is a new historical high – the sixth since the beginning of the year.Exactly one year ago, the dollar exchange rate showed a similar trend, reaching a maximum of UAH 42.28 on January 12-13, but then it fell and remained below UAH 42 until the end of October.The National Bank set the euro exchange rate for January 12, 2026, at UAH 50.1444, which is 3 kopecks lower than on Friday.Ukraine won an arbitration case over the non-delivery of ammunition worth $18 millionLast week, Ukraine won in in an arbitration dispute for non-delivery of ammunition worth $18 million. The arbitration tribunal of the Swiss Arbitration Center ruled in favor of Ukraine in a dispute with an American arms supplier. The lawsuit of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine concerned the violation of contractual obligations concluded at the beginning of the full-scale war.The company only partially fulfilled the contract, having received a 100% prepayment for artillery ammunition. Now it is forced to return over $18 million along with penalties. The arbitration court fully supported the position of the Ukrainian side, rejecting all objections of the defendant.Last year, a Financial Times investigation noted that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine had paid approximately $770 million in advance to foreign intermediaries for weapons and ammunition that were never delivered.Rapid de-shadowing. Official calculations increased by 30% in 2025The State Tax Service reported that official transactions in Ukraine increased by a third last year, with a total of 10.4 trillion receipts generated in 2025. The service describes this dynamic as evidence of the de-shadowing of transactions and increased transparency of the economy."Declared revenues through cash registers increased to UAH 5.6 trillion. This is more than UAH 1.2 trillion or 27.6% more than in 2024," the State Tax Service noted.A positive trend is also observed in the number of payment documents. In 2024, 9.5 trillion checks were issued, and in 2025, their number increased to 10.4 trillion units. The increase was 921.07 billion checks, or 10%.Russia attacked Lviv with an "Oreshnik" missile: Ukraine convenes the UN Security CouncilPresident Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that on the night of January 9, Russia applied to attack Ukraine with a medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik". In particular, a medium-range ballistic missile was launched from the "Kapustin Yar" training ground towards Lviv. This is the first time a ballistic missile has been used against Lviv. According to President Zelenskyy, Russia is trying to take advantage of bad weather conditions and cause a humanitarian crisis with its strikes.In total, on the night of January 8-9, Russia launched 242 drones at Ukraine, including 13 ballistic missiles specifically targeting energy facilities and civilian infrastructure, one "Oreshnik" medium-range ballistic missile, and 22 cruise missiles.Infrastructure facilities and high-rise buildings were hit. Four people were killed and 24 residents were injured. In the capital, about 6,000 high-rise buildings were left without heating, and some more without water and electricity. The mayor of Kyiv called the attack "the most painful" for Kyiv.Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Sybiha stated that Kyiv is initiating an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council and the Ukraine-NATO Council due to the "Oreshnik" strike. According to him, the "Oreshnik" strike announced by the Russians near the borders of the European Union and NATO is a serious threat to security on the European continent and a test for the transatlantic community.Sybiga stressed that Putin used "Oreshnik" near the EU and NATO borders "in response to his own hallucinations," which is a global threat.Dairy wars. Ukraine has a milk surplusThere is a surplus of milk in Ukraine. Because of this, a "milk war" broke out in November and is still ongoing. Ukrainian milk processors They are pressing. on farmers, demanding a reduction in the price of raw milk.On another front, there are large retail chains that squeeze the lowest prices out of processors and delay payments. At the same time, their shelves are open to imported cheeses, almost a third of which are contraband.Currently, dairy production in Ukraine is at its highest level in the last five years. Dairies are processing more milk than in pre-war times. In three years, the industry has grown by a third, reaching a production volume of 108 billion hryvnias in 2025 (according to the Research Institute of Informatization and Economic Modeling).Now, the dairy industry is facing the issue of reduced demand. In 2024-2025, the milk processing business earned on butter exports. Domestic prices also rose – in the first three quarters of 2024, they increased by a third, to UAH 666 per kg of butter.More details on this in the text: Dairy overdose. How the acute conflict in the dairy market affects prices in stores

Business Week. Rapid de-shadowing, Venezuelan blitzkrieg, and the dollar's roller coaster

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