Four out of ten Ukrainians will stay in Poland permanently – Polish Economic Institute

Four out of ten adult Ukrainians are highly likely to stay in Poland permanently. This is evidenced by data according to the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), despite the fact that 75-85% of adult Ukrainians are economically active, it is identity factors, not economic benefits, that determine the decision to stay in the country permanently.

Over 1.5 million Ukrainians legally reside in Poland. According to PIE estimates, 40% of them have a very high or high probability of staying in the country permanently. These people not only express a desire to stay but also take concrete steps to legalize their stay.

"We estimate that 4 out of 10 adult immigrants from Ukraine have a very high or high probability of staying in Poland permanently. The higher the level of integration into society, the higher the probability of staying, with the highest probability observed among 'settlers,' i.e., relatively young people who arrived in Poland more than four years ago (before the escalation of the war)," the study states.

The remaining 60% of adult migrants are in a transitional phase. They stay in Poland mainly because of work, economic necessity, or lack of alternatives – a destroyed home or occupied territories in Ukraine.

The analysis shows that economic stability is not a decisive factor in planning for the future. The strongest correlation is demonstrated by the identity dimension, which is more than four times more strongly associated with the decision to stay than the economic dimension.

"The decision to stay in Poland is more a psychological and emotional matter than a pragmatic calculation of tangible benefits," emphasize PIE experts.

The integration of Ukrainians is happening fastest in the economic dimension. The professional activity rate of adult immigrants from Ukraine is 75-85%, which is higher than among Poles. Ukrainians already account for 5% of all persons insured in social insurance institutions.

However, integration in the cultural, social, and identity dimensions is happening at a much slower pace. The process of adapting cultural norms, building social connections, and feeling a sense of belonging to the country requires more time.

Four socio-demographic segments can be identified among adult Ukrainians. The largest group, 39%, consists of "guests": professionally active people, mostly men, who arrived after February 2022. The second group, 30%, consists of "traveling women" aged 30-44.

The highest probability of staying in Poland permanently is among "settlers" – 15% of the total number. These are relatively young people who have been living in the country for more than four years, meaning they arrived before the escalation of the full-scale war.

"The highest level of integration is observed in the economic dimension. The lower level of integration is in the cultural, social, and identity dimensions. This means that the process of adapting cultural norms, building social ties, and feeling a sense of belonging to the country is much slower, which can be an obstacle to full integration and the decision to stay in Poland permanently," notes Cezary Przybyl, an advisor to the PIE social processes analysis team.

• The Polish government has prepared a draft law on the gradual phasing out of special measures support measures for Ukrainians, introduced in 2022 after the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.