Fuel price growth in the Russian Federation has outpaced inflation. Ukrainian intelligence has provided a forecast for 2026
Photo: EPA / Georgi Licovski

In 2025, the growth of prices in the Russian fuel market went beyond the usual inflationary trends. Retail prices for gasoline increased by 10.8%, and for diesel fuel by 8%, with officially declared inflation of 5.6%, reports Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

In an attempt to stabilize the market, the Russian authorities were forced not only to maintain but also to extend the ban on gasoline exports – initially until September 30, 2025, and subsequently until February 28, 2026.

The oil refining industry faced additional pressure due to reduced state support: payments under the damping mechanism for the first 11 months of 2025 halved. In response, vertically integrated companies compensated for losses through the domestic market – in November 2025, gasoline producer prices increased by 14.5% year-on-year, and retail prices by 12.8%.

Against this backdrop, the decline in global oil prices has become an additional risk factor. Companies will continue to try to compensate for losses from raw material exports by increasing prices for gasoline and diesel fuel for domestic consumers.

Even with a partial recovery in production, Russia's fuel industry remains unstable. In 2026, the market may again face price fluctuations regardless of the dynamics of petroleum product output. The system's vulnerability will be exacerbated by a combination of administrative restrictions, financial pressure, and unfavorable external conditions.

Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine