Goldman Sachs predicts oil price to fall to $54 per barrel in 2026

Oil prices are likely to fall this year due to a surge in supply that is creating a global glut. Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent average price forecast at $56 per barrel, expecting a low of $54 in the final quarter of the year. About this reports Reuters.

Analysts maintained their estimates for the average price of Brent crude oil at $56 per barrel and for American WTI at $52 per barrel through 2026.

Brent and WTI are expected to bottom out at $54 and $50 respectively in the last quarter of this year as oil inventories in OECD countries continue to build.

"The rise in global oil inventories and our forecast of a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026 suggest that restoring market balance will likely require lower oil prices to slow non-OPEC supply growth and support steady demand growth," Goldman Sachs said.

The bank emphasizes that only significant supply disruptions or a significant reduction in production by OPEC countries could change this forecast.

Last year, both benchmarks posted their worst annual performance since 2020, falling nearly 20%.

The bank's analysts are paying attention to political factors that will affect the oil market. The focus of US politicians on strong energy supplies and relatively low oil prices will restrain a sustained rise in prices ahead of this year's midterm congressional elections.

Goldman Sachs expects prices to gradually recover only in 2027, when the market returns to deficit. This will happen due to a slowdown in supply from non-OPEC countries and a steady increase in demand.

The forecasted average price for Brent and WTI in 2027 will be $58 and $54 per barrel, respectively. At the same time, this is $5 lower than the bank's previous estimate due to the expected increase in supplies in the US (by 0.3 million barrels per day), Venezuela (0.4 million) and Russia (0.5 million).

"We still recommend that investors hold short positions on the Brent time spread from Q3 2026 to December 2028 to reflect the forecast for a surplus in 2026, and that oil producers hedge the risks of lower prices in 2026," the company said.

• On December 16, the price of Brent oil fell for the first time since May 2025 fell below the psychological mark $60 per barrel. An additional factor was the revival of hopes for agreements to end Russia's war against Ukraine.