Polish stocks, Czech koruna, Ukraine's debt: which assets benefited from peace talks

Peace talks surrounding the war in Ukraine have already been reflected in financial markets. At the end of 2025, investors were actively investing in assets that could benefit from a decrease in geopolitical tensions: Polish bank shares rose, the Czech koruna strengthened, and Ukraine's debt also became more expensive, according to data Bloomberg.

A 12-stock index compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence and focused on potential benefits from the end of the war has risen 14% since peace initiatives Donald Trumpa they picked up around mid-October. For comparison, emerging market stocks and the S&P 500 index added less than 3% over the same period. Overall, the BI basket has grown by 33% since the beginning of the year.

Ukraine's dollar-denominated bonds rose in price after the European Union approved a 90 billion euro loan to Kyiv.

Sovereign bonds maturing in 2029 are trading at around 75 cents on the dollar, compared to 57 cents in June. Thus, the quotes have almost returned to the highs recorded immediately after Trump's return to the White House, when expectations of a quick peace were particularly high.

"We have an excessive cost of Ukrainian debt, but we have tactically reduced some of our risk, given that we are still skeptical about reaching an agreement in the near term," said Roger Mark, an analyst at Ninety One.

Further dynamics will largely depend on the volume of funding for Ukraine's reconstruction, in particular on whether the EU will eventually dare to use frozen Russian assets. This was stated by Gennadiy Lozovsky, Chief Investment Officer of Sandglass Capital Advisors.

"If an agreement is reached on the use of Russian reserves, it will be very positive for all holders of Ukrainian sovereign bonds, and will have spillover effects for state-owned corporations and even the private sector," Lozovsky added.

• December 3 The European Commission has officially proposed to use up to 210 billion euros. of the immobilized assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to provide financial assistance to Ukraine.
• On December 18 in Brussels The EU summit has begun. The leaders of the bloc's member countries must finally determine the fate of Russia's frozen assets and their possible use as a loan to Ukraine.
• Leaders of the European Union to appeal to EU institutions with a request to urgently create conditions for providing a "reparations loan" secured by frozen Russian assets.