Reuters: EU May Weaken 2040 Climate Goal of 90% Emissions Cuts

The European Union is considering softening its 2040 climate target if forests fail to absorb enough carbon dioxide to meet the goal, according to a draft compromise proposal seen by Reuters.

EU member states are expected to seek agreement on a new 2040 climate target at a meeting of environment ministers on November 4, ahead of the UN climate summit starting on November 6.

Amid concerns from some countries about the economic burden on struggling industries, the EU is weighing options to introduce flexibility and possible adjustments to its climate objective, which the European Commission has proposed as a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.

The latest draft compromise seen by Reuters includes a new clause stating that if forests and other land-based activities that absorb CO₂ fall short of expectations, the EU would be allowed to propose "an adjustment of the 2040 intermediate target corresponding to and within the limits of the possible shortfalls." Brussels could also propose additional measures to help the forestry sector get back on track to meet the emissions goal, the document says.

Reuters noted that the amount of CO₂ absorbed by Europe’s forests and land use sector has declined by nearly one-third over the past decade due to wildfires and unsustainable forest management.

Earlier drafts showed that member states had already discussed allowing the EU to review the 2040 target every two years — a move that could further weaken it in the future.

• The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has for the first time predicted a decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions. The expected reduction is 10% by 2035 compared to 2019. But to keep global warming within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a 60% reduction is needed.