Russia Unable to Service Arctic Ports, China Cannot Be Relied Upon — Intelligence Assessment

Russia is unable to properly service its Arctic ports due to infrastructure failures caused by Western sanctions, according to an assessment published by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZR)

"Moscow's plans to turn the Northern Sea Route into a full-fledged transportation artery run into a basic infrastructural failure," the statement said.

The intelligence agency noted that over the next five years alone, ports along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will require approximately 60 million cubic meters of dredging. Similar work is also needed in ports in other regions of the Russian Federation.

"Previously, Moscow systematically relied on foreign contractors that possessed the necessary fleets and technologies for large-scale dredging. The sanctions regime has effectively shut down this channel. Russia has failed to create an alternative in the form of domestic capacity: statements about the design and construction of dredgers at the Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg remain declarations without practical results," the statement said.

According to the SZR, in 2025 Russia was able to dredge only about 2.2 million cubic meters across all of its ports using its own resources.

"Against the backdrop of the stated needs, this is a negligible volume that does not systematically change the situation," the intelligence agency noted.

The statement added that, in theory, Russia hopes China will participate in developing northern port infrastructure. However, Beijing is primarily interested in uninterrupted transit along the entire Northern Sea Route, rather than in developing individual Russian ports as logistics hubs.

"In the coming years, this means a simple reality: large vessels will pass by without stopping. Even if China agrees to participate in dredging operations, it will be Beijing that determines where and in which ports the work is carried out. For Moscow, this would mean a loss of control over spatial development, an inability to selectively support individual regions, and de facto dependence on external influence," the statement said.

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