Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimates 2025 GDP growth at 2–2.3%

Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture estimates that gross domestic product (GDP) growth will reach 2–2.3% in 2025 and expects growth of around 2% in 2026, even if the war continues throughout the year, Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev told LIGA.net in an interview.

According to Sobolev, the economy showed a noticeable rebound in the second half of 2025 despite repeated Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and businesses, demonstrating resilience amid large-scale destruction and persistent risks.

"Even in a scenario where the war continues throughout 2026, we are projecting economic growth of about 2%," the minister said.

At the same time, he acknowledged that electricity shortages and intensified Russian attacks on businesses will be among the key challenges next year.

The Cabinet of Ministers expects to ease business losses through recovery grants, with a broader business support program currently in preparation.

According to the ministry, the main drivers of Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026 will be construction, domestic trade, manufacturing, and the defense sector.

"In addition, after two consecutive years of weak harvests, there are expectations that next year will be better for the agricultural sector," Sobolev said.

• Separately, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 2% in 2025, according to estimates by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).