World Bank downgrades Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2026: it will remain at the level of 2025

The World Bank has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth to 2% in 2026. This is stated in a new report, published by on October 7.

According to World Bank forecasts, the Ukrainian economy will continue to grow at the level of 2025 and reach 2% in 2026. In 2027, growth is expected to reach 5%.

Earlier, the organization expected the Ukrainian economy to accelerate to 5.2% in 2026.

"Ukraine's economic growth is likely to slow to 2% in 2025 from 2.9% in 2024 as Russia's ongoing invasion affects investment and business activity," the report says.

Among the reasons, the World Bank cited the highest gas imports in almost two years and a decline in agricultural exports.

"During the first half of 2025, the value of exports decreased by almost 5% amid a decline in exports to the European Union, where almost 60% of Ukraine's foreign supplies are directed," the report says.

The World Bank has noted that Ukraine's economy is in the process of transformation, with new sectors emerging and productivity gains in existing ones likely to boost employment.

"Among the available sectors, information technology (IT) and digital industries have proven to be resilient since February 2022 and are likely to contribute to employment growth in the future. Agriculture and agro-processing have been Ukraine's main comparative advantages since 2014, and productivity gains as well as progress along the value chain have significant potential for job creation," the document says.

The organization predicts that logistics, energy and construction are likely to be the main employment and growth sectors during Ukraine's reconstruction.

"Among the new sectors, defense and related industries are likely to benefit from recent technological advances and sustained high demand, with the potential to create jobs for skilled workers," the report says.

• Ukraine's GDP growth was 0.9% in the first quarter and 0.8% in the second quarter .
• The EBRD in its September report downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 from 3,3% to 2.5%.
• The National Bank said in August that it expects economic growth of 2.1% by the end of the year, but it may be even lower.