Business Week: "Winter Thousand" for groceries, new booking rules, and taxes for sole proprietors

Ukrainians were allowed to spend the "winter thousand" on groceries, and annual inflation fell below 10% for the first time in a year. At the same time, there was talk in the crypto market about a possible new crypto winter after a sharp drop in Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

The IMF insists on introducing VAT for sole proprietors with income exceeding UAH 1 million, which could drastically change conditions for small businesses and increase the administrative burden. The government, meanwhile, announced a doubling of student scholarships starting in 2026, and mobilized military personnel have been given the opportunity to apply for mortgages at 3% through the "eOselia" program. How these changes affect the economy and what businesses can expect – in the traditional review of the main events of the business week from LIGA.net

The "Winter Thousand" can now be spent on groceries

From December 11, UAH 1000 of "Winter Support" It is possible. spend on Ukrainian-made food products, paying with the "National Cashback" card. The funds cannot be spent on excisable goods.

This option is already available in the Fozzy Group (Silpo, Fora, THRASH!, Fozzy) and Blyzenko retail chains. It can be used in over 1,160 stores throughout Ukraine. The ministry promised that the list of locations will expand over time.

For now, the option does not apply to online orders.

Funds received on the "National Cashback" card via Diia can be spent until June 30, 2026. Those who receive assistance through Ukrposhta can spend it by the end of February 2026.

Inflation has fallen below 10% for the first time in a year

Consumer prices in Ukraine in November 2025 compared to October increased by 0.4%, and in annual terms – compared to November 2023 – by 9.3%.

Annual inflation returned to a single-digit figure for the first time since October 2024.

Core inflation (which excludes short-term, uneven price changes caused by seasonal or administrative factors) was 0.3% in November and also 9.3% year-on-year.

In November, the prices of eggs (+12.6%), vegetables and fish products, oil, pasta, milk, butter, and bread increased the most. At the same time, prices for fruits, pork, sugar, poultry, and rice decreased. Clothing and footwear became 2.3% cheaper.

Utility rates remained stable throughout the month, with only an increase in garbage collection prices recorded.

Bitcoin has dropped in price, and the market is talking about a new crypto winter

In early December 2025, talk of a crypto winter began. Investors had not yet recovered from the sharp drop in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in November when new reasons for concern emerged.

Bitcoin, which reached an all-time high of $126,251 on October 6, fell to over $83,000 in December, losing 16.7% of its value in November alone. A little later, the cryptocurrency recovered and rose in price to over $90,000.

Global media outlets have started talking about a possible start of a crypto winter. Market sentiment worsened after $19 billion in positions were liquidated on October 10 — this was an automatic closing of traders' deals when the market sharply moved against them. Additional tension is created by insider comments about the possible sale of large BTC holdings.

A crypto winter is a prolonged phase of market decline. The last one began after the 2017 peak, when the ICO boom (a period of massive fundraising in crypto through Initial Coin Offerings) created the illusion of continuous growth.

"The main indicator is a sharp drop in activity: the number of transactions is decreasing, new projects are not being launched, there are no listings, and the market as a whole looks sluggish," he says in a comment. LIGA.net Portfolio manager Oleksandr Yutysh. "This is an indicator that is easy to verify and measure."

Read more about whether we should really expect the start of a crypto winter, or if it's just a seasonal downturn, in the text: Is crypto winter near? Why are cryptocurrencies getting cheaper and how long will the market be down?

EU countries have begun to allocate obligations for the reparation loan for Ukraine

EU countries will have to do it separately. to take undertook to provide guarantees for up to 210 billion euros in loans for Ukraine, with Germany providing guarantees for up to 52 billion euros.

These guarantees are needed for Belgium to support the provision of a "reparations loan" to Ukraine, secured by frozen Russian assets, the majority of which are held in Belgium.

The amounts for each country may increase if some EU members, such as Hungary, refuse to provide guarantees. However, in such a case, non-EU countries that express a willingness to take on some of the guarantees could help. Norway, in particular, is being considered for this option.

Earlier, the Europian Central Bank refused to provide guarantees for a "reparations loan." This refers to the allocation of 115 billion euros for Ukraine's defense industry over five years and 50 billion for Kyiv's budgetary needs. The remaining 45 billion from the total package will go towards repaying the G7 loan provided to Ukraine last year.

Scholarships will increase by 100% in 2026

From September 1, 2026, in Ukraine will grow student scholarships. They were last reviewed four years ago. As of 2022, the standard academic scholarship is 2,000 hryvnias, and the increased scholarship is 2,910 hryvnias.

After the increase, their amounts will be UAH 4,000 and UAH 5,820, respectively.

An increase is also provided for college students:

• standard – from UAH 1,510 to UAH 3,020;
• increased from UAH 2,197 to UAH 4,394;
• Presidential – from UAH 7,600 to UAH 15,200;
• Verkhovna Rada scholarship – from UAH 3,320 to UAH 6,640;
• scholarship based on the industry principle – from UAH 1,930 to UAH 3,860;
• Industry-specific scholarship (increased) – from UAH 2,809 to UAH 5,618.

The state budget of Ukraine for 2026 provides UAH 6.6 billion for the payment of academic and named scholarships to students of educational institutions. This is UAH 1.2 billion more than in 2025.

VAT for sole proprietors could destroy the simplified tax system

The IMF is demanding that Ukraine introduce mandatory VAT for sole proprietors with an income of over UAH 1 million per year. Without fulfilling this requirement, Ukraine risks not receiving a tranche of aid. But for businesses, this could turn into the most significant change in recent years.

Up to a million sole proprietors may automatically become VAT payers, meaning their administrative burden will increase significantly, and they will lose the benefits of the simplified system. For small businesses, this is not about "just another tax." It's about more complex accounting and additional costs.

The number of registered VAT payers is likely to quadruple. Currently, there are 250,000 of them. Up to 1 million sole proprietors out of the current 1.7 million may fall under the new VAT payment criterion.

"Some sole proprietors will be forced to raise prices, some will have to split their businesses or move into the cash segment, and some will simply close down," said Taras Marshalok from the Center for Public Finance and Public Administration Analysis at the KSE Institute.

Read more about when to expect such changes and how they will affect Ukrainian businesses in the text: VAT for sole proprietors: who will be affected by the reform and when will it start?

Mobilized individuals will be able to apply for a mortgage at 3% through eOselia

Mobilized servicemen will be able to apply for a housing mortgage at 3% under the "eOselia" program. The corresponding decision adopted The Cabinet of Ministers.

"The government's decision will allow mobilized military personnel to apply for mortgages at 3% instead of 7%. This way, we are creating equal opportunities for both mobilized personnel and those serving under contract," said Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

The government has set limits on the area of such housing: up to 115.5 m² for apartments and up to 125.5 m² for houses.

In total, according to Svyrydenko, 21,864 families have taken out preferential mortgages through eOselia, including 6,438 military personnel and veterans. Mortgages under the program can be applied for through the Diia app, the Cabinet of Ministers noted.

IFC acquires stakes in Ukrainian insurance companies

The International Finance Corporation (IFC), which is part of the World Bank Group, announced on investing in the equity capital of two Ukrainian insurance companies – Kniazha and the Ukrainian Insurance Group (USG).

Both insurers are among the top ten largest in Ukraine and belong to the Vienna Insurance Group. IFC will buy 20% of the shares in each company.

"The investment will help ensure business continuity, expand access to insurance products, and strengthen Ukraine's insurance market amid the Russian invasion," IFC said.

This is IFC's first equity investment in Ukrainian insurance companies.

Power outages and working on generators make business services more expensive

Prices for goods and services in Ukraine will increase this winter, and possibly more than once. This is the result of large-scale Russian strikes on the energy sector and many hours of power outages throughout Ukraine.

Cafes, bakeries, and pharmacies operate on diesel and gasoline generators or use energy storage devices. This has already increased the cost of their products or services by 5-15%. However, this is not the limit of the problems. The number of customers has decreased, as people try to walk the streets less in the evening.

"Of course, [working on a generator] affects the cost, and we will also be raising prices from 10% to 18% for various services," says Volodymyr Bilenkyi, owner of the Vet House veterinary clinics.

A day of operation for his clinic from the general network costs about 1500-1700 UAH. The cost of an hour of operation on a generator is about 200 UAH, which amounts to up to 4800 UAH per day.

Read the text to find out how businesses are adapting to working with power outages and how much they are spending on it: Overcoming the darkness. What bakery, clinic, and pharmacy owners are doing to keep working despite long blackouts

The Cabinet of Ministers has introduced a 45-day reservation and canceled inspections for the defense industry

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine adopted changes that allow enterprises of the defense-industrial complex to retain their human resources potential. This refers to the possibility of temporary reservation for 45 days and the cancellation of the mandatory 72-hour check for critically important companies.

The new rules create an additional protection mechanism for employees of defense enterprises. Now, employers can reserve specialists for a period of 45 calendar days – this is the time allotted to an employee to rectify violations of military registration rules.

Another concession is provided for enterprises with confirmed critical status. They no longer need to wait 72 hours for verification of the submitted lists of employees for reservation.