Stable energy and slowing inflation improved business confidence

The Index of Business Activity Expectations (IBE) increased from 48.3 in July to 49.0 in August 2025, which is higher than the same period last year (48.4). About said the press service of the National Bank.

According to the NBU, businesses in August maintained a restrained assessment of their economic performance, but improved both month-on-month and year-on-year.

Positive expectations are driven by robust consumer demand, stable energy, slowing inflation, and seasonal factors.

At the same time, economic activity is hampered by the destruction of production facilities, high restoration costs, rising electricity prices, and a shortage of skilled workers.

Construction companies positively assessed their current economic performance for the fourth consecutive month. The sectoral index in August amounted to 54.0 compared to 50.6 in July 2025 (50.7 in August 2024).

For the sixth month in a row, trade enterprises maintained positive assessments of their current performance. The sectoral index in August amounted to 51.8 compared to 51.2 in July 2025 (50.4 in August 2024).

Trade companies expect an increase in turnover and purchases of goods for sale. At the same time, they were more pessimistic about their inventories and balances of goods for sale.

Industrial companies maintained a cautious outlook for their performance, given the continued destruction of production facilities and the significant costs of restoration, raw materials, and labor.

The sectoral index in August was 48.7, compared to 48.6 in July 2025 and August 2024. Industrialists continue to expect a decline in inventories of raw materials and supplies.

Service companies slightly softened their assessment of their business performance, but maintained the most restrained assessment of their business activity. The sectoral index in August amounted to 47.0 (in July 2025 – 45.8, in August 2024 – 46.5).

The respondents expected a decrease in the volume of services provided, while they were less cautious about the volume of new orders for services and services in progress.

"The situation on the labor market remains heterogeneous. Only respondents in the construction industry were set to increase the total number of employees, while companies in other sectors expected to reduce staff," the NBU said.

• In April 2025, business in Ukraine assessed their economic activity more cautiously: the index of business activity expectations decreased to 49.4 points against 51.8 in March.
• In the second quarter of 2025, Ukrainian business maintained positive expectations for economic development despite the war and uncertainty.