Russia’s agricultural collapse: Why Ukraine is following a similar path

Russia’s agricultural sector is spiraling into crisis. Sanctions are taking their toll—key industry metrics have crashed for the first time in years. While declines in 2022 and 2023 were masked by stolen grain from occupied territories, that resource is now depleted.

In Russia, agricultural investments are shrinking, and imported machinery increasingly fails, patched with homemade or Indian parts.

Without modern additives and active substances, the quality of agrochemicals and fertilizers is deteriorating. Together, these factors are slashing exports and costing billions.

Return to the plow and locusts

According to a USDA forecast (U.S. Department of Agriculture), Russia’s grain yields will drop this year: corn by 27%, oats by 12%, and wheat by 11%.

Russian farming quality was already on par with Pakistan and Ethiopia in the past. For instance, last year’s wheat yield in the aggressor state hit 29 centners per hectare (hailed as an achievement), compared to 30 in Ethiopia and 31 in Pakistan.

Yet Russia did not owe this to Putin’s diligence but to Western agrotechnology and equipment. Their use boosted grain yields by a third over the past decade: from an average 20 centners per hectare to 30, sometimes higher in favorable years.

Combined with vast fields, this made Russia a top grain exporter. Gross wheat harvests rose from 70 million tons annually in the 2000s to 92 million last year.