Ukrainian agribusiness forecasts smaller 2025 harvest: grain -3%, oilseeds -11%

The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB) has published its harvest forecast for the 2025–2026 marketing year, based on the nearly completed early crop harvest. The estimates suggest a decline in total output.

Grain production is projected at 54.6 million tons (-3% year-on-year), while oilseed production is expected to reach 18.8 million tons (-11% y-o-y).

The combined harvest of 73.4 million tons will be around 5% lower than last year.

Most crop yields are forecast to fall due to adverse weather conditions, including insufficient rainfall, spring frosts, and an abnormally dry summer in the south and east.

By crop:

• Wheat: down 6% to 21.0 million tons
• Corn: unchanged at 26.7 million tons
• Barley: down 1% to 5.2 million tons
• Sunflower: down 7% to 10.1 million tons
• Soybeans: the sharpest decline, down 19% to 5.4 million tons
• Rapeseed: down 8% to 3.3 million tons

"In the south and east, farmers report very low yields or even complete crop losses, while in other regions yields remain stable or exceed last year’s levels," UCAB said in a statement.

Vinnytsia region is expected to become the country’s main breadbasket in 2025, with a projected output of 6.1 million tons.

• For comparison, in early July the Ukrainian Grain Association forecasted a much larger harvest — up to 83 million tons of grains and oilseeds.