Ukraine faces rye shortage as bread prices soar

A shortage of rye is expected in Ukraine during the 2025/26 season, which may lead to higher prices for rye bread and could force some bakeries to halt its production altogether. This was stated by Rodion Rybchynskyi, Director of the Union of Millers of Ukraine, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.

"As for wheat production in 2025, estimates suggest that Ukraine will harvest around 20 million tonnes, more or less. This volume is more than sufficient to avoid any domestic shortages of flour and bread. The sowing of other cereal crops — millet, buckwheat, oats, and peas — has just been completed. It is still difficult to predict summer weather conditions and, consequently, the yield of spring crops. However, we can already say with certainty that there definitely will be shortage of rye in the 2025/26 season," Rybchynskyi said.

According to him, Ukraine is already partially processing Polish rye, while rye flour from the Baltic countries is being used for bread production. Rybchynskyi noted that this has become a common practice in the Ukrainian milling industry.

"The main reason is farmers' reluctance to sow rye, as its yield is roughly one-third lower than that of wheat — around 40 centners per hectare versus 60. Rye is demanded only on the domestic market. Still, its price has become highly competitive: while one tonne of rye cost UAH 6,000–7,000 in 2024, by May 2025 the price had risen to UAH 12,000–14,000. Previously, the domestic shortfall was covered by imports from Belarus, making it difficult for Ukrainian farmers to compete," he explained.

Rye flour prices have also surged: in May 2024, the price was UAH 10,000 per tonne, compared to UAH 18,000 for Ukrainian flour and UAH 20,000 for imported flour in 2025.

"This won’t just result in higher prices for rye bread — many bakeries will simply stop producing it altogether," Rybchynskyi warned.

"In the 2025/26 marketing year, we’ll likely face a shortage of rye and will need to import it at European market prices. This may revive interest in rye cultivation among Ukrainian farmers. By the 2026/27 marketing year, we can expect them to increase the rye planting area, which should help stabilize the market," he added.

• On June 3, Minister of Agrarian Policy Vitaliy Koval presented a pessimistic outlook for the 2025 grain harvest. If the worst-case scenario plays out, the harvest could fall by 10%, to around 51 million tonnes — down from 56.7 million tonnes in 2024.