IEA predicts record oil surplus by 2026. Prices continue to decline

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil markets will face a record oversupply next year due to slower demand growth and increased supplies. This was reported by Reuters і Bloomberg.

According to the forecast, oil reserves will grow at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, which is even higher than in 2020. At the same time, oil demand in 2025-2026 will grow twice as slowly as in 2023.

The OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia, have accelerated the resumption of suspended production. The IEA also slightly raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil production in 2026, primarily in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

"The balance of the oil market is becoming increasingly excessive as projected supply exceeds demand at the end of this year and in 2026. It is clear that something will have to be changed to stabilize the market," the IEA said.

Oil prices in 2025 fell by about 12%, trading at around $66 per barrel in London. This provides consumers with some relief after years of high inflation, but it also creates financial risks for oil companies and producing countries.

Despite the seasonal demand for gasoline and diesel in the summer, global oil inventories already reached a 46-month high in June, and the market is beginning to experience oversupply. New sanctions against Russia or Iran could change the situation.

Global oil consumption will grow by only 680,000 barrels per day in 2025, the lowest since 2019. In 2026, demand will increase by 700,000 barrels per day.

The IEA predicts that by the end of the decade, oil demand growth will stop as countries switch to electric vehicles and abandon fossil fuels.

• On August 8, it was reported that oil prices had experienced the longest fall since 2021 – seven days in a row.