McKinsey changes its forecast for fossil fuels: will retain a "significant share" after 2050

Fossil fuels will retain a "significant share" in the global energy balance even after 2050, as rapid growth in electricity demand outpaces the transition to renewable energy sources. About it says in the latest forecast of the international consulting company McKinsey.

McKinsey expects fossil fuels to account for about 41-55% of global energy consumption by 2050, down from 64% today but up from previous forecasts.

Demand for electricity will increase mainly as a result of a projected 20-40% growth in the industrial and construction sectors by 2050. Data centers in North America will make the largest contribution to this jump.

The use of natural gas for electricity generation is expected to grow most significantly, eventually replacing many fuels with higher emissions.

Coal consumption may also remain at a higher level than previously expected.

The company cited cost competitiveness and energy availability as the most important factors in a successful energy transition.

"Some alternative sources, such as green hydrogen or other sustainable fuels, may not be competitive with conventional fuels in the near term," McKinsey noted.

Data center-related electricity demand in the U.S. is expected to grow by nearly 25% per year through 2030, while demand from data centers worldwide is expected to grow by an average of 17% per year between 2022 and 2030, particularly in OECD countries.

According to McKinsey, alternative fuels are unlikely to become widespread by 2040, unless they are mandatory. However, renewable energy sources can provide 61-67% of the world's energy balance by 2050.

McKinsey partner Diego Hernandez Diaz said the company does not expect oil demand to peak until the 2030s.

"This may have been our biggest change in the way we approach the development of the energy system," Reuters quoted Diaz as saying.

McKinsey also predicts a significant increase in the use of clean energy sources, such as nuclear, geothermal and hydropower, combined with the expansion of the use of batteries and hydroelectric storage.

• In August, the largest US oil company, Exxon Mobil, predicted that gas demand by 2025 will increase by 20%. Global oil demand will stabilize after 2030, but will remain above 100 million barrels per day by 2050.