OPEC+ to boost oil output by 411,000 barrels in June

Eight OPEC+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — held a virtual meeting on May 3, during which they agreed to increase oil production in June by 411,000 barrels per day compared to May, according to OPEC+.

In 2023, the alliance agreed to limit oil output under production quotas to maintain relatively high prices. Some members, led by Saudi Arabia, imposed additional voluntary cuts.

These eight countries are now gradually returning to normal production levels — and at a faster pace than previously expected.

According to the statement, the decision was based on “healthy market indicators” and low global oil inventories.

However, Bloomberg reports, citing analysts and OPEC+ delegates, that the real reason behind the shift in strategy may be Saudi Arabia’s dissatisfaction with overproduction by some members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq.

Reportedly, Saudi Arabia has decided to “punish” these countries by increasing supply and thus pushing oil prices down.

Expert Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy A/S (who used to work in the OPEC secretariat) calls this decision "а bombshell to the oil market".

"With this move, Saudi Arabia is seeking to punish lack of compliance particularly from Kazakhstan but also ingratiate with President Trump’s push for lower oil prices," he said.

Lower oil prices could potentially reduce Russia’s oil revenues, which help fund its war against Ukraine. This may weaken Russia’s military capabilities and increase economic pressure on the aggressor.

OPEC+ countries emphasized that they reserve the right to suspend or reverse the output hike depending on market conditions.

The next meeting is scheduled for June 1, 2025, to determine production levels for July.

• As of May 3, the price of Brent crude oil was about $61 per barrel.