Reuters: Ukraine peace talks won't affect global oil and gas markets

Attempts Donald Trump to achieve peace in Ukraine is unlikely to have a significant impact on global oil and gas markets, regardless of the outcome of the negotiations. About writes Reuters.

After Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the EU and the US imposed several packages of sanctions against Moscow, which significantly hit its energy sector.

In 2021, 45% of Europe's gas imports were provided by Russia, now it is only 18%. Imports of Russian oil fell from 30% to 3%. In addition, the EU plans to completely abandon Russian energy by 2027.

At the same time, India has sharply increased its purchases of Russian oil – from 16% in 2021 to 38% now. Supplies to China and Turkey have also increased.

According to columnist Ron Bousseau, even if Trump tries to put pressure on the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and achieve a partial ceasefire, Europe will not resume imports of Russian energy until Putin remains in power.

The Trump administration could theoretically ease the sanctions, but this would be opposed in Congress, particularly by Republicans.

Trump has already imposed a 25% duty on imports from India due to the purchase of Russian oil. However, Busso believes that this will not affect global markets, as China compensates for the decline in Indian purchases and is not giving up on Russian oil.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil and gas markets enter a period of oversupply. In 2025, production will exceed demand by 1.76 million barrels per day, and in 2026 – by 3 million.

Production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also growing rapidly in the United States, Qatar, and Canada.

Therefore, even if Trump's talks fail or lead to new sanctions, no significant shocks are expected in the energy markets.

• On August 18, it was reported that the European Union increased purchases of Russian LNG by 29% in the first half of 2025.