Russian gas exports to EU to plummet over sevenfold from 2021 amid loss of market share

The supply of Russian pipeline gas to the countries of the European Union in 2023 will fall by 65% and will amount to approximately 20-25 billion cubic meters, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts.

This is approximately seven times less compared to 140 billion cubic meters, which were recorded in 2021. Last year, after the start of aggression against Ukraine, Russia sold only 60 billion cubic meters to the EU.

In 2025, the next slump in supplies from Russia is expected in connection with the end of the transit contract with Ukraine.

"This forecast assumes that only TurkStream string 2 (15.75 billion cubic meters per year) will supply Russian piped gas to the European Union starting from 2025," the IEA writes.

Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko warned in June 2023 that the gas transit contract with Russia is unlikely to be extended.

The long-term contract concluded for 2020-2024 provides for the annual transit of 40 billion cubic meters, but Russia does not use that much and does not compensate for the shortage, despite the "pump or pay" rule.

Because of this, Ukraine's state oil and gas company Naftogaz initiated international arbitration against Russia's Gazprom.

In 2022, Russia transported about 20.35 billion cubic meters of natural gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. This was the lowest volume of transit during Ukraine's independence since 1991.

Before the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's share of the EU gas market was about 40%. During 2022, it lost two of its main gas transportation routes, and one more – Ukrainian – was reduced.

Trying to blackmail Europe with gas, Russia stopped Nord Stream 1 from August 31, 2022, and a month later the pipeline was destroyed by an explosion in the Baltic Sea. One of the threads of Nord Stream-2 was also damaged. Russia was not allowed to launch it because of aggression.

Since May 2022, Ukraine has stopped gas transit through the Sokhranovka gas metering station due to the Russian occupation of the northern part of Luhansk Oblast, and Russia refuses to transfer these volumes to the Sudzha gas station. At the same time, Russia itself refused to transit gas through Poland through the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

All together, this led to the fact that the export of Russian gas to Europe collapsed to the lowest levels, which were last recorded in the times of the USSR.