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On Monday, May 5, the price of oil on the world market fell by more than $2 per barrel due to the weekend decision of OPEC+ to accelerate the increase in oil production, writes Reuters .

Futures for North Sea Brent fell by 3.6% to $59.08 per barrel, and for US WTI by 3.9% to $56.00 per barrel.

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How the OPEC+ decision affects the oil market

At the end of 2023, eight OPEC+ member countries led by Saudi Arabia agreed to artificially reduce oil production by 2.2 million barrels daily to maintain an acceptable price level on the world market.

Since the beginning of April 2025, a gradual but fairly rapid lifting of these restrictions has begun.

"OPEC+'s decision on May 3 to raise production quotas by an additional 411,000 bpd for June reinforces market expectations that the global supply and demand balance is moving toward a surplus," said Tim Evans, founder of the Evans on Energy newsletter.

If we summarize the total increase over three months (April, May and June), it will amount to 960,000 barrels per day. This means that the participating countries have already lifted 44% of the initial restrictions.

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At this rate, the group may completely abandon voluntary cuts by the end of October 2025.

Officially, OPEC+ explains its decisions by "healthy market indicators" and low oil reserves.

At the same time, Bloomberg, according to analysts and OPEC+ delegates, writes that the real reason for the change in strategy is Saudi Arabia's dissatisfaction with excessive production by members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. Saudi Arabia allegedly decided to "punish" them by lowering the price of oil by increasing supply.

Lower oil prices could potentially reduce Russia's oil revenues that finance its war against Ukraine, which opens up the possibility of weakening the Russian war machine and creates additional economic pressure on the aggressor.