Cocoa beans will increase in 2025 - will chocolate be cheaper?

The global market for brown gold is gradually recovering from the crisis. After three years of deficit, when beans were in short supply due to tree diseases and heavy rains in West Africa, a surplus is expected. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) predicts that in the 2024-2025 marketing year, global production will reach 4.84 million tons.

LIGA.net tells what is happening on the market, whether chocolate will become cheaper and which countries earn the most from cocoa beans.

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Who grows cocoa beans and who makes money on it

only four countries in the Gulf of Guinea region account for 65% of the total cocoa volume. The absolute leader is Côte d'Ivoire with 1.85 million tons, accounting for 38% of the world's harvest. It is followed by Ghana (600,000 tons), Nigeria (350,000) and Cameroon (320,000). By comparison, South America is still lagging behind: Ecuador produces 480,000 tons, Brazil - 210,000 tons.

At the same time, the biggest profits from the cocoa market go not to producers, but to processing countries. The EU imports 60% of the world's cocoa. The Netherlands is the leader (880,000 tons), followed by Germany (249,000) and Belgium (117,000) .

Ranking of the largest producers and importers of cocoa beans in the season 2024-2025 (Infographic: Nazariy Prysyazhnyuk / LIGA.net)

The United States (198,000) and Canada (129,000) together account for about 7% of global imports. Malaysia leads the way in Southeast Asia with 490,000 tons.

The global value chain is concentrated in developed countries. They are the ones who receive the main margin - at the stage of turning beans into chocolate. The market is structured in such a way that producers remain mostly suppliers of raw materials.

Will chocolate become cheaper in 2025

Despite the expected surplus of beans, chocolate prices are unlikely to decline in the near future. Here are the reasons why:

• First, cocoa prices have already reached a record high of more than $10,000 per ton on the ICE exchange in 2024. This is a consequence of the shortage of recent years. Even the expectation of a good harvest does not instantly bring down prices.
• Secondly, chocolate is made from stocks of raw materials purchased at old, high prices. Consumers may see a decline in price only in a few months or at the end of 2025 - and that is not guaranteed.
• Third, the final price depends not only on the beans. Rising costs of energy, logistics, packaging, and labor are also putting pressure on the cost of production. This restrains the potential decline in chocolate prices even if the cost of raw materials decreases.