Ukrainian agrarian minister predicts 10% decline in 2025 grain harvest
Minister of Agrarian Policy Vitaly Koval has issued a downbeat forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 grain harvest. If the most pessimistic projections materialize, total grain output could fall by 10%, amounting to approximately 51 million tonnes, compared to 56.7 million tonnes in 2024, according to Reuters.
"A difficult season awaits us. An abnormally warm winter, first there was no humidity, then prolonged rains delayed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a decrease in the harvest," Koval said in an interview with the agency.
"The most negative forecast is minus 10%. According to expectations the harvest of grain is minus 10%, oilseeds minus 5%. It's definitely not a failure, but God willing we will harvest everything," he said.
The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council also highlighted severe drought conditions in southern Ukraine.
"Farmers have not seen such drought in the past 10–15 years. The damage is enormous. We’re talking about Kherson and adjacent areas, particularly parts of the Mykolaiv region," said Denys Marchuk during a briefing on June 2.
According to Koval, Ukraine could harvest:
- 26 million tonnes of corn
- 20–22 million tonnes of wheat
- 4.5 million tonnes of barley
- 1.5 million tonnes of other grains
- 11.5 million tonnes of sunflower seeds
- 11 million tonnes of sugar beets
The total oilseed harvest is expected to reach 20.16 million tonnes, down from 21.18 million tonnes in 2024, largely due to a 600,000-tonne drop in rapeseed production.
The minister did not offer an official export forecast for the 2025–2026 marketing year, citing uncertainty over final output. However, analysts at ASAP Agri estimate total grain exports at 40.9 million tonnes, including 15–15.5 million tonnes of wheat.
