Global oil demand to grow in 2026: three predictions
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Global oil demand, according to the IEA, will grow by about 930,000 barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025. This is higher than in 2025 (about 850,000 bpd) and indicates a moderate increase in consumption, according to the latest report International Energy Agency (IEA).
The recovery in economic activity and demand for petroleum products, particularly for petrochemicals, will drive demand growth, although the increase in demand for gasoline will be moderate.
The IEA estimates that average global demand in 2026 could reach approximately 104.4-104.6 million barrels per day.
Demand in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) remains the main driver of growth, while in developed economies demand is growing more slowly or may be stable.
Economic conditions and oil prices affect consumption, particularly in the transportation and petrochemical sectors.
IEA forecasts the lowest demand growth among the leading energy agencies for 2026.
| Organization | Demand growth forecast in 2026 |
|---|---|
| IEA | ≈ 0.7-0.93 million barrels per day |
| OPEC | ≈ 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day |
| EIA (USA) | ≈ 1.2-1.3 million barrels per day |
Yes, for forecasts According to OPEC, global oil demand in 2026 will increase by about 1.4 million barrels per day compared to 2025, and total global demand will reach about 106.4-106.6 million barrels per day.
In the growth structure, the largest contribution will come from non-OECD countries (especially China, India, and other regions of Asia and the Middle East).
The growth forecast remains relatively stable compared to previous estimates.
Global consumption of liquid hydrocarbons (including oil) in 2026, by assessment According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it will increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day.
The expected level of consumption in 2026 is approximately 104.8 million barrels per day, compared to 103.7 million barrels per day in 2025.
CORRECTED. The original headline incorrectly stated that oil demand would rise by nearly a trillion barrels.
- The overthrow of the Maduro regime in Venezuela did not affect OPEC+ plans for oil production in 2026.
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