Swine fever at the door. Who brought it and what will happen to meat prices in Ukraine

Outbreaks of ASF this year are already 27% higher than last year. In 2023, swine fever was also gaining momentum. There were almost five times more outbreaks than in 2022.

Some market representatives interpret this development as approaching a catastrophe. Mykola Babenko, executive director of the Meat Industry Association, says that "at least 30% of the pig population has already been lost" and that 50% of the industrial herd is on the verge of being killed.

He cites statistics on pork prices to prove his point. It has been falling in price for the fifth week in a row because pig farms with evidence or even suspicion of ASF are rapidly getting rid of their pigs. Usually, such meat is sold urgently, the market is overloaded and prices go down.

In the future, in the event of an epidemic, half or even most of the pig population may die. Then consumers will cover the pork shortage with other types of meat, primarily chicken.

This will push up prices by at least a third. An additional option is that the market gap will lead to an increase in pork imports. Given prices on European markets and shipping costs, this meat will become 60% dearer. That is, the retail price of pork could set a new record, up to 300 hryvnias ($7.26) per kg. This is Mykola Babenko's assessment.