Tanker Furia (photo - Vesselfinder)

US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoilthat came into force on Friday, November 21, may prevent 48 million barrels of Russian oil from entering the world market. About this writes Bloomberg.

After the introduction of the new restrictions, Indian refineries began actively looking for alternative suppliers. They are book tankers for shipments from the Middle East at such a pace that freight rates on this route reached almost a five-year high.

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Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on the end buyers (if any) of Lukoil and Rosneft's oil, which is already at sea.

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"Russian export flows are continuing, but they are not yet reaching their destinations. If this continues and the situation gets stuck along the entire chain, we may see a reduction in supply, which will be a problem for the markets," said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Strategy at ING Groep NV.

According to the analytical company Kpler, almost 48 million barrels of Rosneft and Lukoil oil – mostly Urals and ESPO – are currently on the way or just starting to be loaded.

Among them, about 50 tankers are heading to China and India, but there are also those that have no announced destination or are moving to smaller ports, from the Baltic to the South China Sea, as intermediaries distance themselves from the trade.

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Russia has made shipments a priority in an effort to keep oil flowing. Sea shipments remain strong at around 3.4 million barrels per day, according to ship tracking data. Benchmark prices have so far largely ignored the impact of the latest restrictions.

"It's painful, but it will only last three to four months," says Adam Lanning, senior tanker market analyst at brokerage SSY. "We'll probably see markets start to adapt in the coming months and find ways to import this oil without being scrutinized.

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Growing pressure on Russian exports has already forced buyers to switch to major global oil brands. The coming days will test how determined they remain, the agency notes.

Two tankers carrying Urals, which had previously turned around at sea, probably due to sanctions, have recently set sail again, heading for India. It is unlikely that they will reach their final customers before the end of the transition period on November 21.

The Spirit 2 tanker, loaded with 730,000 barrels of Urals from Rosneft, was headed for Asia when it made a U-turn after passing through the Suez Canal in early November and drifted in the area for several days, according to ship tracking data. Over the weekend, it headed south again, indicating India as its destination.

Furia, another Aframax-class tanker that in late October turned around in the Baltic Seathis week, the Suez Canal oil tanker has already passed through the Suez Canal and is heading to India. It is carrying almost 730,000 barrels of Urals loaded by Rosneft.

Other vessels are already showing early signs of disruption that could be triggered by Western sanctions.

For example, in Russia's Far East, the tanker Cindy loaded nearly 770,000 barrels of ESPO at Kozmino in early November with no clear destination. It is now headed for open waters near Singapore and Malaysia, areas where Iranian and sometimes Russian oil is often transferred from tanker to tanker to conceal its origin.

The tanker Fortis, carrying 720,000 barrels of Urals from Rosneft, is heading to Yeosu, South Korea (another popular area for ship-to-ship oil transfers) after having transshipped in waters off India. Fortis was previously expected to arrive in Ningbo in China, but later changed its destination to Yeosu.