Ukrainian retail reaches pre-war levels with $37 billion turnover

In 2023, Ukrainian retail surpassed pre-war 2021 turnover levels, as evidenced by a market research study of Ukraine's retail trade conducted by the Retail Association of Ukraine and YouControl based on official tax reporting data from companies.

The results were presented during the 7th international specialized exhibition of retail and commercial real estate of Ukraine, RAU Expo 2024.

In 2021, the turnover of networks amounted to UAH 1.44 trillion ($35.38 billion), in 2022 – UAH 1.16 trillion ($28.51 billion), and in 2023 – UAH 1.54 trillion ($37.85 billion). This is 30% more than in 2022 and UAH 100 billion ($2.46 billion) higher than the pre-war industry figures.

The highest turnover was generated by food retail – UAH 491.5 billion ($12.08 billion), followed by gas station networks (UAH 203 billion, $4.99 billion), and building materials stores (UAH 73.8 billion, $1.81 billion).

However, Vitaliy Boyko, founder and CEO of NAI Ukraine and Urban Experts, forecasts a record turnover for networks in 2024, the highest in retail history. According to him, in the first five months of this year, turnover increased by 30% compared to the same period last year across all product groups.

"Growth is seen in all networks. If there are no significant disruptions, turnover in 2024 will be higher. The main retail season is autumn-winter. Last year it was good, and today the consumer buying mood is more optimistic than last year. In 2023, the first half was weak due to blackouts. Not everyone had generators and not everyone adapted to the new conditions. Now the situation is different, everyone is prepared, and the first half of this year was expected to be better. So, if conditions don't worsen significantly, turnover will be at least the same as last year, and the increase in the first half will already add a plus," Boyko notes.

The forecasted figures will not be hindered by the fact that a significant part of the solvent audience has moved abroad or changed their place of residence.

"$25 billion is the annual military payroll. According to our estimates, 30% of the turnover is generated by the military and their families. High military salaries have ensured increased turnover," says Vitaliy Boyko.

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