Market and technology indicator. Why potatoes are cheaper in Ukraine than in Russia

In Russia, there is a shortage of potatoes, which Georgians are making money on. Belarusians and Kazakhs cannot keep up. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko is slowing down imports, fearing a price spike. And Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has banned the export of potatoes altogether. LIGA.net investigated how the potato situation in Ukraine looks against this background?

Potatoes have risen in price again in Russia. After April 20, the retail price of a kilogram of "potatoes" in Russian stores and city markets exceeded 100 rubles (53 hryvnia). In Kaliningrad (formerly Koenigsberg), supermarkets sell potatoes for 130 rubles, and imported and young potatoes for 150 rubles per kilogram. This is the equivalent of 65 and 75 hryvnias.

For comparison, in neighboring Lithuania and Poland, the price of potatoes is half as much. In these NATO countries, they are sold for 0.4 euros and 2.5 zlotys per kilogram. In Russian money, this is 38 and 55 rubles, respectively.

Directions from the centers

As befits a country on a war footing, the Russian government has decided to crack down on rising potato prices. To do so, it used two measures.

The first is that partially closed inflation statistics. The second is that they gave the order to import potatoes from wherever possible, for which they are introducing a duty-free regime for potatoes .

Of course, just like in Soviet times, Georgians have already managed to capitalize on the vegetable theme. Since the beginning of the year, Georgia has increased its potato exports to Russia 38 times. Coincidentally, it was at this time that Russian customs officials and the sanitary and epidemiological station blocked the import of 1.2 thousand tons of imported potatoes in the ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse.

Against this Caucasian background, Belarus looks sad. The country used to be a leader in potato cultivation, which is why envious people called it "Bulbostan". Now it cannot provide itself with this vegetable.

Last December, Alexander Lukashenko announced the introduction of licensing for potato exporters. This regime is regularly extended. Simply put, potato exports to Russia are only allowed with Lukashenko's personal permission. This state of affairs has already become the subject of caricatures in European media. Meanwhile, in Minsk stores, the price of potatoes has risen to 2.2 local rubles, or 28-29 UAH per kilogram.

Kazakhstan's potatoes are also isolated from exports. Because of its export to Russia, at the end of 2024, the Kazakhs even imposed restrictions on its sale in stores – no more than 5 kg per customer. Eventually, banned exports altogether. After that, price growth slowed down, but continues. Currently, in Kazakhstan, potatoes are sold in supermarkets for 260-330 tenge, or 21-26 UAH per kilogram.

The Phenomenon of the Kursk Operation

In Ukraine, without any restrictions, in an unregulated market, retail prices for potatoes have risen from 12-15 UAH in September 2024 to the current 30 UAH per kilogram in ATB, to 40 UAH in Novus and in markets. This is almost as much as in Belarus and twice as cheap as in Russia. What's the matter, because Ukrainian UAVs don't seem to have flown into strategic potato storage facilities in Russia?

Last year, Russia had a poor potato harvest, 20% less than in 2023. Officially, 1.6 million tons were shortchanged, while the total harvest was allegedly 7 million tons. But this statistic does not take into account that significant volumes did not reach the market from the Kursk region, where fighting has been going on since August 2024.

It was small farms in the Kursk region, as well as in the Bryansk region, that supplied large quantities of potatoes to the Russian market. And while it is officially reported that the Bryansk region reduced the harvest by 0.5 million tons, which is equal to one third of the total reduction, there is no information about the Kursk region. Thus, the real reduction in harvest could be as high as 25%.

Lack of storage facilities in Ukraine

Ukraine is doing better with potato harvesting. Farmers are convinced that official statistics have long overestimated the real potato figures by almost half. It is as if the State Statistics Service is not able to keep accurate records of the harvest in small farms, which account for 80% to 90% of the total harvest. That is why LIGA.net appealed directly to market participants.

Sergiy Rybalko, owner of Adelaide Farm, one of the leaders in Ukrainian potato growing, notes that last year's yield on his farm was 10-12% less than in 2023. At the end of the season, Continental Farmers Group (CFG) reported that they had received "the planned potato yields, and for some varieties we forecast higher yields than planned." So, there was no failure in terms of gross potato harvest.

Stability is linked to the availability of high-quality planting material, mostly European-bred varieties. For example, in KFG No. 1, these are the Melody and Riviera varieties originating in the Netherlands. Adelaide also works with varieties from the Netherlands .

The second factor is adherence to cultivation technology and timely use of high-quality crop protection products and fertilizers. According to farmers, the share of agrochemicals is at least 50% of the cost of potatoes. Of course, due to sanctions for the war, it is the quality of these components that Russians have problems with.

Another aspect is the availability of modern potato storage facilities. And there are problems with this in Ukraine. "A potato business without storage is like grandma's playground. Modern storage facilities include drying, further automatic control of humidity and temperature, and gas sensors. New storage facilities are like a Toyota compared to some Zhiguli "kopek"," says Sergey Rybalko.

Only a well-developed storage network can reduce seasonal fluctuations in potato prices, says Igor Shkurko, director of Chernihivelitkartoplya.

On the positive side, last week it became known that potato storage facilities were included in the Affordable Loans 5-7-9% program. This means that it is now possible to take out a loan of up to UAH 150 million for the construction of storage facilities.

According to Andriy Marushchak, commercial director of Van Dyke Techs LLC, the construction of a storage room for 1 thousand tons of potatoes alone requires UAH 10 million (in 2023 prices). Additional equipment with sorting and packaging lines can cost another 5 to 20 million UAH.

Thus, the implementation of the Potato Storages project within the country will require investments of UAH 3 billion to UAH 9 billion.