From 7 to 30 quotas: EU ends trade relief for Ukraine on June 6
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The return to the terms of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) between Ukraine and the European Union on June 6 will reinstate restrictions on approximately 30 product groups, compared to just seven under the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM), according to Oleksandra Avramenko, Head of the European Integration Committee at UCAB, in an interview with Latifundist.com.

"The most painful part is that we're not just returning to quotas on seven product groups, as under the ATM, but to the full framework of the DCFTA, which was established by the Association Agreement signed in 2014," Avramenko explained. "It includes about 30 quotas. In addition to wheat, corn, and sugar, products such as tomato paste, dairy products, ethanol, pork, and beef are also subject to new restrictions. After June 5, we’ll face significantly more limitations."

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Avramenko predicts that farmers involved in value-added chains, such as wheat-to-flour processing, will be particularly affected by the quota tightening.

"Raw wheat usually fills the entire quota," she said. "But the quota also includes processed wheat products like flour, groats, broken grain, and hulls. As a result, these products won’t be exported in the same volumes as they are now."

Producers of dairy, tomatoes, and eggs are also expected to see revenue declines.

"Ultimately, the surplus products remaining in Ukraine will likely decrease in price somewhat, simply because there may be too much supply. Most producers aren’t prepared to quickly adapt production or reorient exports," Avramenko noted. "So while prices may fall on the domestic market, they could rise in the EU."

She added that the shift shouldn’t come as a surprise.

"Back in May last year, the European Commission warned that the ‘duty-free trade regime’ would not be extended indefinitely and that it intended to update the trade component of the Association Agreement," she said. "So I wouldn’t call this a sudden change. It’s just that Ukraine’s agricultural sector preferred to believe that unrestricted access to the EU market would continue, when in reality we should have started preparing for a less favorable scenario a year ago."

  • In May 2022, the EU suspended duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports. However, since 2024, quotas on ‘sensitive’ agricultural products have been reintroduced, even though the duty-free regime remains in place. The EU has extended this arrangement through mid-2025.
  • In 2024, the EU exported goods worth €42.8 billion and imported €24.5 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of €18.3 billion.
  • In contrast, Ukraine continues to import nearly twice as much as it exports. In the first four months of 2025 alone, the foreign trade deficit (across all countries) reached $11.5 billion.