The Bank of Russia downgraded its forecast for the price of Russian oil to $55 per barrel

The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the price of oil for tax purposes for 2025-2026 to $55 per barrel from $60 in the previous April forecast. These data are contained in the updated medium-term forecast published on July 25.

The forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at $60 per barrel. The bank expects the same level of Russian oil prices in 2028.

Since February, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has changed its approach and now forecasts the price of Urals directly, abandoning the use of Brent quotes (the benchmark oil grade produced in the North Sea).

In April, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development also started making forecasts based on the price of Urals.

The Ministry's estimates differ from the Central Bank's. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual price of Urals crude oil will be $56 per barrel in 2025, $61 in 2026, $63 in 2027, and $65 in 2028.

The strengthening of the ruble along with the collapse of oil prices forced the Russian government to change the budget, reducing oil and gas revenues by 2.6 trillion rubles to 8.3 trillion (in 2024, this figure was 11.13 trillion rubles) and increasing the deficit by more than three times - to RUB 3.8 trillion, or 1.7% of GDP.

If the ruble remains as strong as it is by the end of the year, Russia may be shortchanged trillion more, and the budget deficit will approach 5 trillion rubles.

• In June 2025, Russia's revenues from oil and gas sales fell for the first time since January 2023 below RUB 500 billion per month.
• In July, the average price of Russian oil, calculated in rubles, remained lower than the target set in the budget for 2025.