Business Week: Electricity imports to increase, hryvnia to be gradually weakened, offshore zones to be created in the regions

Business life does not stop even during the New Year holidays. To overcome the restrictions in force in Lviv, developers are expanding the scope of the struggle – now new housing projects from almost all suburban villages are putting pressure on the Lviv city hall. The Cabinet of Ministers, on the contrary, is restraining the pressure on small businesses – officials have started talking about consultations on the conditions for introducing VAT for individual entrepreneurs. After all, it is small businesses that are supposed to fill the new shopping malls, the number of which is growing at an alarming rate.Read about the optimistic news regarding electricity and trade with the USA, the new head of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission, and other events affecting business in the LIGA.net digest.The U.S. will exempt certain regions of Ukraine from tariffsThe Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture is negotiating with the United States to create duty-free zones in Ukraine, the minister said. Oleksiy Sobolev in an interview LIGA.net.The possibility of creating such zones has already been agreed upon. All that remains is to determine the list of regions that will receive special status."We will identify areas in Ukraine where they will not be in effect." tariffs from the United States "This applies to all products manufactured in these regions. The regions themselves have not yet been determined, but such a mechanism has already been agreed upon," the minister said.According to him, a so-called prosperity package – an action plan for Ukraine's recovery and economic prosperity – is being discussed with the American side."We are agreeing on how much funding is needed, what sources it can come from, and through what instruments it can be received," Sobolev explained.A preliminary document has already been prepared and was presented to the US President during the negotiations. Donald Trump."Both presidents have approved it. Now we will involve a wider range of stakeholders to finalize this part of the peace agreement," Sobolev said.April 2, 2025 Trump declared a state of emergency in the U.S. due to the trade deficit. To solve this problem, he decided to introduce a universal tariff of 10% on all imported goods from all countries (starting from April 5). For countries with which the US has the largest trade deficit, even higher tariffs began to be introduced from April 9.Goods from Ukraine imported into the USA are subject to a universal duty rate of 10%. The value of Ukrainian imports to the USA is several times higher. smallerthan American exports to Ukraine.The hryvnia will be allowed to depreciate in a controlled manner: what exchange rate do bankers expect in 2026?LIGA.net collected forecasts five top bank managers on possible exchange rate scenarios and risks that could change the usual picture of the foreign exchange market.They expect:devaluation of the hryvnia by up to 10%, meaning the exchange rate could reach 45 UAH/dollar and 50-52 UAH/euro within a year;continued growth in demand for the euro and a relative decrease in the need for the dollar.The biggest risk to the hryvnia exchange rate is force majeure circumstances related to the war and external financing, serious external shocks, or a deterioration of the security situation, which may force the NBU to revise its monetary policy and lead to sharp exchange rate fluctuations.Read more in the article. "Dollar at 45 UAH, euro at 50+. What will the exchange rate be in 2026?"Sadovyi's team is fighting off developers from the outskirts of Lviv: the city council is against "trash" from Kyiv and suburban villages.High real estate prices in Lviv have intensified competition among developers. A square meter in new buildings in Lviv is sold for $1400, which is more expensive than in Kyiv ($1300), Odesa ($1100), and Uzhhorod ($1000).In the article by Lesia Solovchuk Lviv is bursting at the seams: the outskirts are being built up with new neighborhoods without the city's consent. It is very difficult to obtain land for new buildings in Lviv.Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, who spoke with LIGA.net, explains this by the requirements of the city's historical and architectural plan. He promises that Lviv will not have districts similar to the chaotically built-up Pozniaky in Kyiv. "Often, Kyiv builders are very indignant that it is easier to solve this in Kyiv," he says.When developers started building large residential areas in villages adjacent to Lviv, Lyubomyr Zubach, Lviv's deputy mayor for urban planning, called it "complete trash."Read – what are the risks for the city, who will pay for everything, and who will receive the money.The government will amend the VAT bill for small businessMinister of Economy Oleksiy Sobolev in an interview LIGA.net stated that the revision of the draft law on "VAT issues for individual entrepreneurs with income over UAH 1 million" has begun. The minister called the current draft law "a basic working version that will be finalized from a technical point of view."According to Sobolev, the VAT issue for sole proprietors is causing "tension in the business community." Therefore, the Ministry of Economy, together with the Ministry of Finance, is holding "consultations with businesses, experts, and think tanks – we need to balance support for entrepreneurs with our obligations to the IMF."The minister added that the main goal of the draft law is to eliminate opportunities for optimization by "splitting up" large businesses.The Ministry of Finance's draft law stipulates that from January 1, 2027, single tax payers (excluding third-group e-residents) will be required to register as VAT payers if, over the past 12 months, their sales of goods or services, including online sales via the internet and applications, have exceeded UAH 1 million (excluding VAT).Based on the 2024 data, this rule will affect approximately 660,000 single tax payers – mostly sole proprietors in the second and third groups.Pensions for prosecutors and MPs are temporarily limitedThe government has extended the reduction coefficients for special pensions paid to civil servants, prosecutors, people's deputies, and diplomats until 2026. In Resolution No. 1778 of December 30, it is reportedIf the pension exceeds UAH 25,950 (10 subsistence minimums) per month, the following coefficients are applied to the excess amount:→ 0.5 for an amount between 10 and 11 subsistence minimums;→ 0.4 for an amount between 11 and 13 subsistence minimums;→ 0.3 for an amount between 13 and 17 subsistence minimums;→ 0.2 for an amount between 17 and 21 subsistence minimums;→ 0.1 for an amount exceeding 21 subsistence minimums.For example: a special pension of 25 minimums (UAH 64,875) will actually amount to UAH 35,551 this year (45% less).The restriction does not apply to ATO participants and individuals who participated in the defense of Ukraine against Russian aggression, nor to the pensions of family members of fallen defenders.The Bureau of Economic Security destroyed an unknown quantity of counterfeit Lavazza coffee.On the eve Six owners of an underground business in the Kyiv region received suspended sentences on New Year's Day. According to the investigation conducted by the Bureau of Economic Security, they packaged coffee in counterfeit packaging under the Lavazza and Dallmayr brands. Wholesale and retail sales were established through online platforms, retail outlets, and local markets.The Vasylkiv city court ruled to confiscate the cars of the "workshop workers" and destroy the coffee in the counterfeit packaging.Regarding transport, the Bureau of Economic Security reported that six vehicles worth UAH 4 million "have been transferred to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine."The coffee situation is complicated. The BEB detectives could not record its exact weight in the underground warehouses. The accounting was hampered by the fact that part of the coffee was in packaging "with an unspecified weight." Therefore, in the court registerspecifiedthat the seized goods must be destroyed – "at least 766.25 kg of Lavazza brand coffee".Zelenskyy is replacing the head of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission: is it under pressure from the IMF?President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed The head of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) is Oleksiy Semenyuk. it is said in Decree No. 1019/2025 of December 31, 2025.Previous by decree On December 31, Zelenskyy dismissed Ruslan Magomedov, the head of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission, by decree No. 1018/2025.Previously, Magomedov was a freelance advisor to the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak. Under his leadership, the National Securities and Stock Market Commission for a long time hesitated by closing down schemes for capital withdrawal and adopted The decision was made only under pressure from the IMF.An additional source of tension was Magomedov's personal relationship with an employee of the investment company ICU.There will be more electricity: in January, the possibility of importing electricity from the EU was increased by 14%.In January, Ukraine's technical capacity for importing electricity from the European Union was expanded to 2450 MW. In December, this figure was 2150 MW. reports press service Ukrenergo."This gives us additional opportunities to balance the power system and increases its resilience to various threats," said the head of Ukrenergo. Vitaliy Zaichenko.At the same time, he noted that electricity imports depend not only on technical capacity but also on market prices."The determining factors are both the technical capacity of interstate lines and the price of electricity in Ukraine and neighboring countries. However, in any case, the January increase in the maximum import capacity from EU countries is a factor that positively affects our energy system. By the way, today, in terms of daily import volume, we have already surpassed last year's highest figure," he added.In November, Ukraine increased electricity imports up 15% compared to October, to 415,000 MWh. Hungary accounted for the largest share of imports (44%).In Dnipro, unlike Kharkiv, Free travel on public transport is not possible.The Mayor of Dnipro Borys Filatov stated that "there is no such thing as free transport," because transportation in Kharkiv is financed from the city budget. According to him, Kharkiv allocates about UAH 2.5 billion per year for transport.Filatov added that the city budget is formed from residents' taxes and Kharkiv has significant debts for gas.According to the mayor of Dnipro, these cities have different ownership structures for their transport systems. In Kharkiv, there have been no private carriers since April 2022. In Dnipro, only electric transport is municipal, while all bus services are provided by private companies.According to Filatov's estimates, free public transport in Dnipro would require an additional 4-5 billion UAH from the city budget.According to Filatov, the current fare of 20 UAH on most bus routes in Dnipro is practically the maximum permissible according to the law.These funds are not going towards updating the fleet or improving comfort, but only allow us to keep the vehicles in working order and not reduce the number of routes, the mayor emphasized.The fare increase didn't make transportation better – it allowed us to keep it from getting worse, Filatov explained.The construction of new shopping malls will double in 2026According to the Ukrainian Council of Shopping Centers, about 20 shopping centers will open this year.centersThis is twice as much as in 2025, when only ten facilities started operating,writes LIGA.net.According to Petro Punyak, co-founder of WR Group, the average return on investment in such centers is 15% per annum, but there are projects where the return reaches 25%.Read the article to find out in which cities new centers will be built, what formats are relevant, and what are the reasons for the increased construction of shopping malls. "Ocean for Kyiv, retail parks for the regions."

Business Week: Electricity imports to increase, hryvnia to be gradually weakened, offshore zones to be created in the regions

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