Business Week: Ukraine's 2026 budget, public debt over 100%, and stores without salespeople

The government approved the 2026 budget with record defense spending, Kyivkhlib is launching stores without salespeople, and PrivatBank is preparing the Dnipro-Arena stadium for sale. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are being offered a new investment instrument – defense project funds, and the pharmaceutical giant "Darnitsa" has stopped production due to a conflict with the largest pharmacy chains.

How exactly is the Ukrainian economy changing under the pressure of war, what business initiatives are being launched even in crisis conditions, and who is becoming a new market player – this is discussed in the traditional review of the main business events of the week from LIGA.net

The Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft budget for 2026

The Cabinet of Ministers at its meeting on Monday approved draft state budget for 2026.

The revenues of the general fund of the budget are tentatively planned at the level of 2.83 trillion hryvnias (+18.8% compared to the current budget), and expenditures – over 4.8 trillion hryvnias.

The budget deficit is projected to be up to 18.4% of GDP, which is 3.9 percentage points less than in 2025.

The need for external financing is 2.08 trillion hryvnias. The largest share of budget funds is traditionally allocated to defense – 2.8 trillion hryvnias, or 27.2% of GDP, which is 168.6 billion hryvnias more than the previous year.

It is planned to spend 265.4 billion hryvnias on education, which is 66.5 billion more than in 2025. Funding for healthcare is increasing to 258 billion hryvnias. Salaries for primary and emergency medical care doctors will increase to 35,000 hryvnias.

1.03 billion hryvnias are allocated for pension provision, and annual pension indexation is planned.

Kyivkhlib to open stores without salespeople

In Kyiv, PJSC "Kyivkhlib" is relaunching its chain of self-service stores. They will now be fully automated, operating without sales staff or consultants. Entry is via scanning a bank card. Payment for goods is also by card – using NFC, Apple Pay, Google Pay, or a contact card reader.

Kyivkhlib plans to switch 10–20 retail outlets to autonomous mode every year, according to a comment LIGA.net Yaroslav Fedorenko, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Kyivkhlib branded network.

According to Yaroslav Fedorenko, the profits of new and old Kyivkhlib retail outlets are comparable. However, the company predicts that after the war, automated stores will be able to earn much better – thanks to the fact that they will operate around the clock.

Kyivkhlib does not currently plan to switch to 100% automation, but will remain on a mixed model. Autonomous modular stores are planned to be installed where opening a full-fledged store is economically unfeasible.

Read more about this in the text: Bread without a cashier. Kyivkhlib is reopening stores without salespeople.

PrivatBank is selling Dnipro-Arena on Prozorro.Sales

PrivatBank to display Dnipro Arena and a training base in Dnipro are up for sale. The auction will be announced at the end of September on Prozorro.Sales. Dnipro Arena is a European-class football stadium in Dnipro, designed for 31,000 spectators, renovated and opened in 2008.

The previous attempt to sell Dnipro-Arena took place at the end of 2022, but then They tried to organize the sale on OpenMarket and they didn't even reach the stage of bidding. The asset was valued at 113 million UAH three years ago.

The national debt will exceed 100% in 2026

Government predicts that Ukraine's public debt could reach 106% of GDP by the end of 2026.

Due to the war and a significant budget deficit, Ukraine's public debt is rapidly increasing. While it stood at 49% of GDP at the end of 2021, in 2022 it reached 77.8%, and by the end of 2024 it will be 91.2%.

According to forecasts, the public debt may reach 106% of GDP by the end of 2026.

Ukrainians are investing in defense projects

A new type of investment for individuals has emerged in Ukraine: funds that work with military projects.

There is room for investment: there are currently over two hundred suppliers of unmanned aerial vehicle systems, and four dozen manufacturers of ground-based robotic systems.

LIGA.net found two funds that offer individuals the opportunity to invest in defense projects. These are syndicated deals from the Defence Builder fund, which belongs to the Sigma Software ecosystem, and the "Resist" venture fund.

The minimum investment amount in the first fund is $1,000. The syndicate invests in company shares, and earnings can be realized after their sale. Resist's average investment per individual is $200,000, with a minimum of $100,000. Investors purchase shares in companies that Resist has invested in.

More about this in the text: Not donations, but investments. How individuals can profit from the defense industry.

A unified information system for the social sphere will be created in Ukraine

A unified system will unite more than 30 state registers, databases, and social services (civil status, property, military registration, medical, judicial, tax registers, etc.).

The law, in particular, provides for the creation of a "social history" of each person, similar to a medical record, which will make it possible to track all forms of social support provided.

The system will be mandatory for use by local self-government and state authorities when providing social services.

The Unified Information System will essentially create a complete picture of citizens, as data will be collected from various registers: from information about military registration and border crossings to tax payments and the ownership of cars, apartments, land, open enforcement proceedings, etc.

25 foreign defense companies are already operating in Ukraine

In Ukraine, already 25 foreign companies, including giants of global defense production, are at different stages of localizing the production of their products. This was reported by Minister of Defence Denys Shmyhal in an interview with Politico.

The government is offering partners various models of cooperation, including the "Danish model," Build with Ukraine / Build in Ukraine. The main goal is to meet the needs of the Ukrainian military.

To make cooperation safer and more attractive to investors, the state is creating a special regime for the development of the defense industry called Defence City.

"It provides for tax benefits, simplified customs procedures, a mechanism for relocating production to safer regions, expanding state financial support, and opportunities for export and integration into global supply chains," Shmygal emphasized.

The war is changing the structure of industry

In the first half of 2025, industrial production in Ukraine, according to data the State Statistics Service, it decreased by 3.9% compared to the same period of the previous year. However, in June, for the first time since the beginning of the year, the relevant index showed an increase of 2.9%.

But more important than the dynamics are the profound structural changes in the domestic industry. This year, a clear shift in emphasis from export-oriented raw material industries to processing sectors has become noticeable. It seems that the Ukrainian economy has finally switched to a wartime footing.

In the first half of the year, the traditionally dominant role of the export-oriented mining industry noticeably weakened. Its share in total sales decreased from 12.4% to 9%. Simultaneously, the share of the processing industry increased from 59.2% to 60.2%. It also demonstrated a 10.4% increase in sales volume. This sector was able to compensate for the decline in January-April thanks to positive dynamics in May-June.

More about this in the text: From raw materials to defense industry. How the war is changing the structure of industry.

In Ukraine, the "gray" market for iPhones is five times larger than the legal one

Five times more "grey" iPhones are sold in Ukraine than official ones. This was reported by CEO Foxtrot Oleksiy Zozulya in an interview LIGA.net.

To resolve the situation, the company proposes to force businesses to comply with the law and support initiatives from participants in the "white" market, who have already prepared specific proposals for relevant associations and committees.

"We have a common position within the informal coalition: ASBIS, COMFY, Foxtrot and several other operators joined us. We formulated a consolidated vision of the problem and prepared specific proposals, which we submitted to relevant associations and committees," said Zozulya.

According to him, the further outcome will depend on the political will of the authorities and the state's willingness to regulate the "grey" segment of the market.

The pharmaceutical company "Darnitsa" has suspended production due to a conflict with pharmacies

Pharmaceutical company "Darnitsa" Since March 2025, it has twice halted production due to a conflict with the five largest pharmacy chains.

We are talking about pharmacy chains "ANC", "Podorozhnyk", "911", "We Wish You Health", "Good Morning", which generate approximately 70% of the income from the sale of medicines to Ukrainians.

According to the leadership of Darnytsia, after the state reacted to company complaint, banned marketing payments to pharmacies, and the latter allegedly began to restrict purchases of its drugs and block sales.

Due to the inability to sell its products, the company stopped production for three weeks in March, and then from June to August. In total, the downtime lasted nine weeks. In addition, it was necessary to reduce staff.

In June, the plant lost about 30% of its sales compared to 2024, and over the next two months, the decline reached 50%.