UN expects global emissions to fall for the first time — by just 10% instead of 60% needed

For the first time, the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expects global greenhouse gas emissions to begin falling, after decades of continuous growth, Reuters reports.

The projected decline amounts to 10% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels — far short of the 60% reduction needed to keep global warming within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

"Humanity is finally, for the first time, clearly steering the emissions curve downward — although still not fast enough," said UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell.

The UNFCCC’s estimate is based on the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by 64 countries that are parties to the Paris Agreement as of the end of September 2024, representing about 30% of global emissions. It also includes announced but not yet formally submitted NDCs — for example, from China and the European Union — as well as the United States’ 2024 emissions reduction commitments, which are expected to be reversed by Donald Trump.

The report was published before the COP30 climate summit in Brazil.

• In 2025, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine is going to update Ukraine's Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement, as the current one has become irrelevant due to the war. It envisaged a reduction of emissions to 35% of 1990 levels by 2030, but already in 2022, due to the destruction of industry and the energy sector, emissions fell to 24.4% of 1990 levels.
• The new NDC will set an interim target for 2035, not 2030 as the previous two NDCs.