New forecast from Goldman Sachs: oil price will approach $50 in a year
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Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the price of Brent crude oil futures contracts will fall to $50 per barrel by the end of 2026, writes Reuters. The main reason is a serious oversupply of raw materials on the market.

At the beginning of April 2025, Goldman Sachs admitted that the price of Brent oil in an "extreme" scenario will fall below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026. This is possible in the event of a global recession and the complete reversal of OPEC+ production cuts.

According to new estimates, supply will steadily outstrip demand next year. The oil surplus will increase to an average of 1.8 million barrels per day, which will increase global reserves by almost 800 million barrels by the end of 2026.

Goldman believes that Brent crude oil prices are likely to remain close to forward contract prices until the end of 2025, but will fall below these prices next year amid accelerating growth in oil reserves in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Analysts estimate that in 2026, oil reserves in OECD countries will account for one-third of the world's total reserves, or 270 million barrels. Combined with the decline in demand in developed economies, this will lead to a decline in the fair value of Brent crude from the current $75 per barrel.

At the same time, a potential acceleration in the growth of oil reserves in China from 0.4 million barrels per day to 0.8 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year will lead to an increase in the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 by $6 per barrel compared to the bank's baseline forecast of $62 per barrel.

On Wednesday, Brent futures were trading at around $67 per barrel in early Asian trading. West Texas Intermediate futures were trading at $63 per barrel.