Gas prices falling for three months straight, but expected to skyrocket in July

The end of 2022 was a busy year for the Ukrainian market of petroleum products. Attacks on the energy infrastructure, alienation of Ukrnafta and Ukrtatnafta, as well as waiting for the European Union embargo on oil, diesel and gasoline from Russia. These events, it would seem, were bound to lead to disaster. But while some gas stations faced temporary interruptions, others tried to increase the volume of imports in order to avoid shortages in the future.

On the one hand, the intentions of importers may seem noble. It is unlikely that Ukrainians have forgotten about the fuel shortage in Ukraine in March-June 2022. On the other hand, their investments could have easily been converted into surplus profits if the European embargo on raw materials from Russia had provoked a sharp increase in the prices of oil and oil products on the markets of Europe and Ukraine.

The worst was averted. First, the European embargo did not cause serious problems in the world economy. And secondly, as soon as spring came and the need to use generators disappeared, the consumption of oil products in Ukraine significantly decreased. As a result, fuel prices have been falling in the country for three months in a row, due to large inventories at gas stations and low consumption.