2025 forecast for Ukrainian economy. GDP growth expected to reach $200 billion

On December 3, representatives of seven Ukrainian and foreign non-governmental organizations and investment banks presented a consensus forecast of the national economy for this year and next. During the presentation, organized by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), the participants compared the estimates of the country's leading non-governmental analytical teams with the vision of the National Bank and the Ministry of Economy.

Almost all experts assume that the war will last through 2025. However, Dragon Capital's team analyzed two scenarios for the next year: if the war lasts for the whole of the coming year and if active hostilities stop in the first quarter of 2025. According to the baseline scenario, the country's economy will continue to recover, price growth will decline, and the hryvnia will gradually weaken.

GDP dynamics: old and new drivers

Both governmental and non-governmental experts forecast real GDP growth in 2025 at around 3-4%. Against the backdrop of expected price increases and hryvnia devaluation, nominal GDP this year, according to average estimates, could reach $189 billion. According to experts, the expected devaluation of 8% and the median GDP growth of 3.5% in 2025 will result in nominal GDP growth to almost $200 billion.

"This is a little more optimistic than the National Bank's forecast and a little more pessimistic than the International Monetary Fund's estimate. But in general, the situation is more or less even," said Maria Repko, Deputy Director of the CES.

The main challenges for the country's economy remain a large shortage of electricity and labor. Experts say increased export capacity, consumer demand, and assistance from partners to finance budgetary capacity and support the economy are among the key factors currently affecting GDP growth.