A carrot for Trump. Will the US supply Ukraine with more gas in exchange for infrastructure?

Ukraine is asking the United States for more liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the upcoming heating season – and is offering its energy infrastructure for American gas and oil exports to Europe in exchange.

American companies can indeed supply Kyiv with significantly more natural gas than they do now. However, if this happens, it will most likely be on purely market terms, rather than as a barter for access to the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS), according to experts interviewed by LIGA.net.

Will American natural gas help Ukraine get through the 2025/2026 heating season, which could be the most critical during the entire period of the full-scale war – in the article by Dmytro Krugliakov.

How much gas does Ukraine need for the winter?

In recent years, Ukraine has relied primarily on its own gas production. In 2024, it amounted to 19.12 billion cubic meters. This is slightly less than annual consumption, which has been affected by the temporary loss of territories and industry reduced from over 26 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 19.8 billion cubic meters in 2023.

The shortage has to be compensated for by imports. Especially since domestic production has significantly decreased as a result of the massive missile strikes this October – for data according to Bloomberg sources, by 60%.

This figure is confirmed to LIGA.net by a manager of a state-owned energy company familiar with the issue, who agreed to speak anonymously because he is not authorized to give public comments. If production capacity cannot be restored, over the four months of the heating season, Ukraine will receive about 2.5 billion cubic meters of its own gas – compared to 6.3 billion cubic meters that it could have expected based on last year's production levels.

The additional need for gas for the next heating season is estimated to be approximately the same difference. Bloomberg sources cited a figure of 4.4 billion cubic meters.

The capacity to import natural gas can cover the deficit caused by the loss of gas production. Currently, Ukraine has a technical capacity for up to 60 million cubic meters of daily supplies, or almost 1.8 billion cubic meters per month, notes Serhiy Makogon, former head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU), in a comment to LIGA.net.

"But the main question is, where to get the money?" he says.

Why Ukraine is talking about LNG from the USA

Ukraine needs €2 billion for additional natural gas imports, according to government estimates. To obtain these funds, Kyiv immediately after the loss of gas production reached out for financial assistance to international partners.

At the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) already promised to provide Ukraine with €500 million for gas purchases. However, so far only new tranches have been concurred Norway's aid alone amounts to €150 million. The Ukrainian government also allocated 8.4 billion hryvnias (€170 million) to Naftogaz from the budget.

On October 27, at a meeting with journalists, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had found the money to cover 70% of its gas imports for this winter.

Another option for securing fuel, which appeared almost immediately in the public sphere, was the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the USA. However, this doesn't solve the financial issue on its own. Moreover, liquefied gas is theoretically always more expensive than pipeline gas, notes Leonid Unigovsky, CEO of the consulting company Naftogazbudinformatsika. This is due to the costs of liquefaction, sea transportation, and regasification at terminals.

However, judging by everything, Ukraine wanted to obtain American LNG on preferential terms. According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian authorities offered cheap storage of American LNG in their underground gas storage facilities (UGS), which, with a volume of 31 billion cubic meters, account for a third of European gas storage capacity. This would allow US companies to export the resource from Ukraine to Europe during periods of higher demand and prices.

The issue of LNG supplies was among those raised by the Ukrainian government delegation led by Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko during the recent visit in the USA. Among its members was Naftogaz's commercial director, Serhiy Fedorenko. And one of the companies with which Ukrainian officials and President Zelenskyy came across in Washington on October 17, was Venture Global is a key US exporter of liquefied gas.

Later, commenting positively on the process of finding funds for gas, the president announced "agreements" between the Minister of Energy, Svitlana Hrynchuk, and the Prime Minister, Svyrydenko, "with American companies". However, details – timelines and supply volumes – were not provided did not name.

The idea of a gas-infrastructure barter continues the diplomatic strategy of the Presidential Office with the White House. The potential for storing gas in Ukrainian underground storage facilities could also be of interest to American companies. Usually, they sell the fuel to Europe immediately after delivery to ports and regasification, explains Unigovskyi.

"It is profitable to store gas in storage facilities if the spread (difference – Ed.) between the winter and summer price exceeds $20/1,000 cubic meters. If the spread is smaller, the company will have to pay extra for storage," explains the CEO of Naftogazbudinformatsia.

In recent years, seasonal market fluctuations have more than covered this standard spread level. If in October 2025 the cost of gas on the benchmark European TTF exchange is just under $400 per thousand cubic meters, then in February the average quotes were $555.

However, despite this, the Americans will not agree to store gas in Ukrainian underground storage facilities until the end of the war, all LIGA.net sources are convinced.

The risk of not being able to access the gas stored in storage facilities at the necessary time outweighs the theoretical benefit of quick export during periods of high demand. The unwillingness of Americans to reserve their gas in Ukraine during wartime is also confirmed by the fact that Kyiv has repeatedly made this proposal without success. Yes, regarding the desire create President Zelenskyy spoke about an LNG hub in Ukraine as early as February 2025 – after the first wave large-scale strikes via the gas pipeline.

Even a preferential price will not promote storage, which offers the Ukrainian side. Domestic storage facilities are much cheaper than European ones – the operator of the underground gas storage facilities, Ukrtransgaz, has fixed storage tariffs since 2023 to encourage foreigners to pump gas in. But "this does not create queues of foreign traders," LIGA.net points out, citing Denis Sakva, energy sector analyst at the investment company Dragon Capital.

Storing a larger volume of gas in underground storage facilities is primarily important for Ukraine itself. Although the trading resource cannot be used for domestic needs during the heating season, its physical presence increases the pressure in the underground storage facilities and thus increases the chance of successfully withdrawing the resource even after the storage facilities are damaged by enemy attacks, explains an employee of the state energy company.

Therefore, Ukraine will try in one way or another to pump as much gas as possible into underground storage facilities before the start of the active withdrawal season. For this, Kyiv is offering Europeans another option – providing a loan for the heating season not in money, but in the form of the resource itself, says a source from a state-owned energy company.

How much gas can the US supply to Ukraine?

Most likely, during the heating season, Ukraine can only count on market conditions for the supply of both pipeline and liquefied gas. However, the commercial cost of the resource can also vary significantly, depending on when the buyer ordered it.

Purchasing gas solely on the spot market with delivery terms from today to tomorrow increases the risk of overpaying due to situational price spikes. Long-term LNG supply contracts, however, are usually concluded for many years in advance and are tied to index quotations or oil prices, notes Denis Sakva. Such agreements guarantee price and volume stability compared to "chaotic purchases" on spot markets, adds Serhiy Makogon.

Even before the October shelling, Naftogaz began negotiations with American LNG suppliers on direct contracts. The company is focusing on this task said On October 1, the head of its board, Serhiy Koretskyi, announced this. However, at least for now, no progress in this process has been announced.

The reason for this may lie in the high load on liquefaction plants, which have pre-booked orders from other clients around the world. "The queue for shipment from American terminals is quite large," says Leonid Unigovsky. There may also be problems with shortages methane tankers and queues at European regasification terminals, he adds.

"As a rule, four to five months pass from the moment a long-term LNG supply contract begins to be concluded until it is signed," says the CEO of Naftogazbudinformatsia. Therefore, he expects Naftogaz to reach the relevant agreements no earlier than the spring of 2026.

Until then, Naftogaz must seek resources from other sources. Among the options is the possibility of "buying out" gas tankers operating under the rule of free on board, meaning they do not have a clearly defined destination. Another option is to agree with Naftogaz's already proven partner, the Polish company Orlen.

It is one of the largest customers of American LNG from Venture Global, holding a 20-year contract with them wrote according to Reuters. This year, Naftogaz has already purchased 500 million cubic meters of liquefied gas of American origin from Orlen, which accounts for 8% of total annual imports, Sergey Koretsky noted in October.

"Orlen not only has a long-term contract, but is also investing money in the construction of LNG plants in the United States. Therefore, it may have certain opportunities to conclude [additional] agreements and transfer part of the gas to us," Unigovskyi believes.