International energy agency doubts Russia's ability to maintain oil production

The deterioration in Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports is calling into question the country's ability to maintain its own production capacity. This is stated in a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), writes Bloomberg.

According to the IEA, in June, Russian oil and oil products exports hit a five-year low.

This indicates possible problems with the infrastructure and Russia's ability to maintain a stable level of oil production under sanctions and logistical constraints.

In June, daily crude oil shipments from Russia amounted to 4.68 million barrels, while exports of petroleum products decreased by 110,000 barrels to 2.55 million barrels per day.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has classified official production and export data, so analysts rely on satellite tracking of tankers, estimates of refinery operations, and compliance with OPEC+ quotas.

Russian refineries operated at a fairly high level in June, despite seasonal repairs, which reduced the volume available for export.

Exports of petroleum products in June fell to their lowest level in eight months. This is due to the fact that the Russian authorities are calling for more fuel (gasoline and diesel) to be kept in the country due to high seasonal demand in the agricultural sector.

Despite the overall decline in exports, Russia's revenues have increased. In June, the country earned $13.6 billion from oil, which is $800 million more than in May.

The increase is attributed to higher global oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East.

The IEA estimates Russia's sustainable production capacity at 9.8 million barrels per day, a level that the country can reach and sustain over time.

In June, actual production (excluding condensate) amounted to 9.19 million barrels per day, 140,000 barrels above the target set by Russia within OPEC+.

• On July 8, German Foreign Minister Johannes Wadefuhl said that Europe is working with the United States to increase pressure on Putin.
• On the same day, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said that the European Union is preparing to impose the "toughest sanctions" against Russia since the beginning of the full-scale war.