Ukraine to conduct stress test of gas transmission system: preparing for zero transit

Ukraine's gas transmission system operator and Ukrtransgaz, the operator of underground gas storage facilities, will conduct a stress test of the system to confirm its operability at zero transit, reported the press service of the Ministry of Energy.

The stress test will cover several possible crisis scenarios and include the risks of potential physical damage to the infrastructure, which may affect the ability to transport natural gas from Ukrainian gas stations to the European Union.

Preparing and conducting a stress test involves four stages. The results will be published in the second half of April – at the beginning of the pumping season.

In 2023, Ukraine already conducted a stress test, which confirmed that the Ukrainian gas infrastructure is ready to work without the transit of Russian gas. The purpose of the re-inspection is to increase the confidence of Western companies in gas storage in Ukraine.

Last year, foreign traders and energy companies stored 2.5 billion cubic meters of gas in Ukrainian gas storage facilities. This year, Naftogaz would like to increase this indicator to 4 billion cubic meters.

"Preparations have already begun. This is really important, because it helps to preserve and support the trust of our partners, to encourage them to store more gas in our storage facilities," said Oleksiy Chernyshov, chairman of the board of Naftogaz, the state oil and gas company.

The 2024 gas infrastructure stress test will be modeled and carried out by a working group consisting of and with the assistance of USAID, the Secretariat of the Energy Society, the General Directorate of the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, international technical experts and GTSOU, Naftogaz of Ukraine and Ukrtransgaz.

The scenario with the termination of Russian transit is more real this year than last year, because the five-year contract with Russia is expiring.

The long-term transit contract between Ukraine and Russia was concluded for 2020-2024. Now it provides for the annual transit of 40 billion cubic meters, but Russia does not use that much and does not compensate for the shortage, despite the rule "pump or pay". Because of this, Naftogaz initiated international arbitration against Gazprom. In 2022, Russia transported about 20.35 billion cubic meters of natural gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. This was the lowest volume of transit during Ukraine's independence since 1991. In 2023, it fell to 14.6 billion.

In June 2023, Ukraine announced that the gas transit contract with Russia is unlikely to be extended.

In July 2023, the European Commissioner for Energy stated that the EU will survive completely without Russian gas, if necessary.