Why Ukraine reconstruction may take 30 to 50 years

The window of opportunity after the war will be very short, like two to three years. During this time, Ukraine must build a reputation as a successful state and launch thousands of successful projects.

The alternative is to get burned by corruption and inefficiency and lose the trust of partners. In this case, the reconstruction will take 30 to 50 years.

Due to the lack of insurance mechanisms, until recently, there have been critically few – if any – projects from international organisations and private companies.

Despite all the statements, IFIs [international financial institutions] are in no hurry to risk their capital. Loans are to be given only to state-owned companies and immediate relief projects.

That is why I see a gap between the words and actions of our Western partners. I hope that recent decisions on risk insurance will change the situation and we will hear about the implementation of large projects by the private sector.

At the same time, a top European banker said a very interesting thing.

"War insurance is not enough. You need predictability of the business environment. You need Rule of Law. You need anti-corruption practices. You need corporate governance in the public sector."

The West expects us to have a true rule of law and a predictable investment climate. Without this, no insurance will work.  

I hope that the work on the establishment of the Kyiv International Financial Centre, a special legal regime under UK law in our economy, will lead to concrete results and we will be able to access international legal standards.

The challenges for post-war Ukraine are so large-scale that global managerial and political solutions are indispensable. I see the parallel introduction of all advanced Western legislation, Western standards and practices into our reality as the only chance to quickly create a legal infrastructure for recovery.

All those hundreds of billions won’t matter without an effective legal infrastructure that Western companies are used to.