Ukraine’s accession to the European Union could open up new financial prospects for Kyiv, with about EUR 186 billion in subsidies over seven years, an internal estimate from Brussels shows, the Financial Times reports.
EU officials this summer estimated the potential financial ramifications of the enlargement in a study, which used existing rules for the union’s 2021-27 budget. These were applied to an enlarged union including Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and six western Balkan states.
The study has neither been endorsed nor approved by the European commission, which drafts EU seven-year budgets.
In total, the financial tally of adding all nine members to the existing budget, also known as the multiannual financial framework, would be EUR 256.8 billion, a 21-percent increase compared to the current volume.
This means that ‘many’ EU member states will become net payers rather than recipients, the FT reports, which may cause significant adjustments to their budgets.
Ukraine, the estimate shows, would be eligible for EUR 96.5 billion from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy over seven years, surpassing France. That financial shift, however, would also force cuts in farm subsidies to existing member states of about 20 percent.
Ukraine would also qualify for EUR 61 billion in payments from the EU’s cohesion funds, which aim to improve infrastructure in poorer member states.
Beyond the financial estimates, the EU study also points to the potential for increasing the bloc’s geopolitical influence and expanding its internal market.
The calculations by the general secretariat of the council, the body that represents the bloc’s 27 member state governments, come as the EU weighs up whether to agree to open formal accession negotiations with Ukraine by the end of this year, as Kyiv has requested.
A spokesperson for the EU council told the Financial Times: "We do not comment on leaks."