Business Week: Subsoil agreement with the US, reduction of agricultural exports and regulation of cryptocurrencies

The main news this week was the long-awaited signing of an agreement on the establishment of the Investment Fund for Reconstruction (the so-called subsoil agreement) between Ukraine and the United States. Its ratification by the Ukrainian parliament is expected next week .

Other topics discussed were: the threat of default, a new draft law to regulate the turnover of virtual assets in Ukraine, a decline in exports of Ukrainian agricultural products, deteriorating business expectations, and the TOP-10 energy companies by profitability.

All this and other memorable moments of the business week are in the new review from LIGA.net.

Subsoil Agreement between Ukraine and the United States

Ukraine and the United States have signed an agreement on the establishment of the Reconstruction Investment Fund (the so-called subsoil agreement). This was reported by First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko and the press service of the U.S. Treasury Department .

Svyrydenko and U.S. Treasury Secretary sign the agreement on the establishment of the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Scott Bessent .

Minister of Ukraine describes key provisions of the agreement:

→ subsoil remains in Ukrainian ownership;

→ the fund is created 50/50;

→ No changes in the privatization or management of state-owned companies are envisaged;

→ the agreement does not mention any debt obligations of Ukraine to the United States;

→ the agreement complies with the Constitution and does not change the European integration course;

→ The fund will be filled exclusively with revenues from new licenses. Revenues from already launched projects or budgeted revenues are not included in the fund;

→ only amendments to the Budget Code are required for the fund to function. The agreement must be ratified by the Verkhovna Rada;

→ US to help attract additional investment and technology;

→ The agreement provides tax guarantees. The fund's income and contributions are not taxed in either the US or Ukraine, so that the investment yields the best possible results.

See also:

Ukraine and the United States Sign Subsoil Agreement

Agreement with the US on subsoil covers 57 minerals and provides for military assistance

Shmyhal wants the Rada to ratify the subsoil agreement by May 8: what the parliament says

Shmyhal: Subsoil Deal Will Encourage the US to Continue Military Assistance to Ukraine

Draft Law on Crypto Assets Needs Amendments

The new draft law on the regulation of the turnover of virtual assets in Ukraine, which the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy supported and recommended for consideration by the Parliament in the first reading on April 24, is defined by market experts as "raw".

In a commentary to LIGA.net , Ruslan Magomedov, Chairman of the National Securities and Stock Market Regulatory Commission (NSSMC), noted that the new draft law was developed on the basis of the Commission's long-standing developments.

"But in the form it was presented to the Committee, after being finalized, it looks like there is still something to change. And a lot of it. The most important thing here is that there are still many inconsistencies with the MCA (Markets in Crypto assets, a document that provides for the regulation of virtual assets in the EU – Ed.) That is, it will not meet the requirements for European integration that are imposed on legislation in this area," says Magomedov .

Kirill Khomyakov, Regional Head of Binance in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa, in his commentary to LIGA.net calls the uncertainty about the regulatory authority a big issue with the current version of the draft law on virtual assets.

"There is one big issue with the current version – the lack of a clear regulatory body. First of all, this may become a problem for the regulatory authority itself, which should be appointed by the Cabinet of Ministers. Under the current approach, the new regulator may not have enough time to assemble a team, prepare bylaws and licensing conditions, etc. before the new law comes into force," Khomyakov said .

See also: Security risks and the lack of a regulator. What does the draft law on cryptoassets bring

Decrease in exports of Ukrainian agricultural products

In April of this year, Ukraine exported 4.1 million tons of agricultural products. According to data from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB), this is half as much as in April 2024, when the volume of such exports reached 8.3 million tons.

The most significant decline in corn exports is 2.3 million tons less than in April 2024.

The main factor behind the significant decline in exports was a decrease in Chinese purchases. Spain is also buying less Ukrainian grain, and this is also due to China, which has reduced grain imports from the EU, which has reduced demand there.

Due to the increase in harvest and accumulated reserves, in March 2025, China reduced grain imports by almost four times, and corn imports by 23 times. At the same time, grain imports from Ukraine have almost completely stopped – from $141.3 million to $60,000.

Read also: Exports of Ukrainian agricultural products have halved – UCAB

The 10 most profitable energy companies in Ukraine are named

As of 2024, the top ten most profitable energy companies in Ukraine, which sell, produce, and distribute gas, electricity, and heat, consisted almost entirely of state-owned enterprises. In addition to them, it includes the structures of Akhmetov and Kolomoisky.

Energy companies increased profits in 2024 due to state regulation.

Such results were obtained by LIGA.net , analyzing the data of the State Statistics Service on section 35 of the Classifier of Economic Activities (NACE).

Ukrhydroenergo, the state-owned operator of hydroelectric power plants, took the first place in terms of profitability. In total, the company earned UAH 54.16 billion, plus UAH 5.5 billion by 2023. The company's net financial result in 2024 amounted to UAH 15.48 billion, which is almost UAH 2 billion less than the year before.

Two state-owned companies with some of the largest revenues in the country declared billions in losses.

See also: Absolute state monopoly. 10 most profitable energy companies in Ukraine

Threat of default

Ukraine's default is possible because the Ministry of Finance has not agreed with investors on the restructuring of GDP warrants worth about $2.6 billion.

The Ministry of Finance offers creditors two options to resolve the situation:

1. Exchange of the warrants for new Eurobonds issued in 2024 (1.35 bond units for each warrant unit).
2. Change in payment terms – payments for 2025-2028 are canceled, the option to redeem/cancel the GDP warrants will be extended until May 2029, and the redemption price will increase progressively from 85 cents in 2026 to 100 cents in 2029. The restructured warrants (maturing in 2029-2041) will have the same characteristics as the existing warrants, except for the redemption option. The holders will receive 36.6 cents of A bonds and B bonds for every 100 cents of warrants.

Victoria Klimchuk of the Kyiv School of Economics believes that a consensus will be found and an agreement on debt restructuring will be reached. If such an agreement is not reached by the end of May, Ukraine will face a choice: either to make the payment or to declare a local default on the warrants.

See also: Ukraine may default on Yaresko's GDP warrants. Why it happened and what are the risks

The Tax Service Replaces Fines with Warnings

For the first time in history, the State Tax Service chose prevention of violations rather than punishment.

More than 1000 Ukrainian retailers have received information notifications via the electronic cabinet to prevent possible violations of the payment procedure. This was reported to by Head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine Ruslan Kravchenko .

"Tax experts analyzed their fiscal checks for March 2025. They noted that their calculations did not reflect any cash transactions. This may indicate a possible failure to make cash payments through cash registers," Kravchenko said .

In its letters, the tax authority suggests that businesses independently review previous business transactions and further prevent payments without the use of registrars when selling goods.

"The correction will allow us to avoid grounds for actual audits. We introduce such additional measures of communication with taxpayers to stimulate voluntary tax payments and compliance with tax discipline," Kravchenko emphasized .

See also: "For the first time in history". Tax Service sends warning letters to businesses, not fines

Business expectations have deteriorated

In April 2025, the index of business activity expectations (IBA), which is calculated monthly by the NBU, dropped to 49.4 points against 51.8 in March.

The reasons most often cited by businesses are deteriorating weather conditions, uncertainty about the course of hostilities, rising raw material and labor costs, inflationary pressure, the weakening of the hryvnia against the euro, and a shortage of personnel.

Among all sectors, industry remained the most optimistic, with its index at 51.8 in April. Businesses expect production growth and new (including export) orders. At the same time, inventories of raw materials decreased, and estimates of work in progress weakened .

The worst sentiment is in the service sector: the index is 46.3. Businesses expect a reduction in services and new orders due to security risks and lack of skilled workers.

Read also: Weather, war and inflation increased uncertainty: business expectations deteriorated again

Filing tax returns in Diia is available again

The service for filing tax returns is back online in the Diia app and portal, now with an updated form for individual entrepreneurs (IEs) that takes into account the payment of military duty. This was reported to by the press service of the state service.

The submission of declarations was temporarily suspended on April 1 due to the transition to new reporting forms.

"The Diia team has updated the tax return form. Now you can also submit documents on the payment of the military fee in a few clicks – in the application," the company added.

After submitting the tax return, the tax authority has 30 days to verify it. The taxpayer will receive a certificate of no debt.

Read also : Tax returns are available in Diia again: what has changed for individual entrepreneurs

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy has started creating an investment portfolio

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food has announced a call for investment projects from existing agricultural enterprises seeking to scale up, modernize and enter new markets. This was reported by , according to Minister Vitaliy Koval .

According to Koval, the initiative's goal is to create a portfolio of large-scale projects that will be presented to international financial institutions, funds, banks, and strategic investors.

These are businesses that are already operating, "not startup-level ideas." The minimum amount of funding that projects need is from $10 million.

Companies with a ready-made investment project can send information to [email protected] .

Read also: The Ministry of Agrarian Policy wants to create an investment portfolio of the Ukrainian agricultural sector: it is collecting projects

Ukraine is first in terms of the ratio of military spending to GDP

Ukraine's military spending in 2024 increased by 2.9% to $64.7 billion, or 34% of GDP, due to the war. For the second year in a row, Ukraine is eighth in the world ranking in nominal terms and first in terms of the ratio of military spending to GDP, according to a report published on Monday by the Stockholm Institute of Peace Research (SIPRI).

"At 34% of GDP, Ukraine has the largest military burden of any country in the world," the report says.

Russia, which attacked Ukraine in 2014 and launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, spent about $149 billion on military needs in 2024, 38% more than in 2023 and twice as much as in 2015. This amounts to 7.1% of Russia's GDP and 19% of all government spending.

See also: SIPRI Rating: Ukraine is first in the world in terms of military spending to GDP