It is already clear that even in the best-case scenario, Ukraine will have several million fewer people after the war than it did before, and there are no prerequisites for long-term demographic optimism, except for a possible short-term postwar baby boom. Migrants are not a good solution – look at France.

And with a relatively small population density, you can live well only if everyone creates a lot of value on average. This happens if this value is extracted from the subsoil (or black soil) or if the country has a lot of talent: in labor-intensive industries, and even more so in traditional services, the added value per employee is much less; and it makes sense to locate capital-intensive industries (Industry 4.0) in developed countries, closer to rich markets and centuries-old traditions of property rights protection, away from global bullies like Russia.

But Ukraine is not very rich in fossils, and its agricultural potential is limited. For this reason, and because we live in a post-industrial era, only creative industries can become a long-term driver of growth. And they rely on talent, which even before the full-scale war often emigrated in search of a better life. Therefore, competition for talent is the key to postwar success.

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